Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Share this post

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
England, Colombia Join Spain, Argentina in Championships

England, Colombia Join Spain, Argentina in Championships

Blockbusters to Close Euros, Copa America Sunday

Jeff Fogle's avatar
Jeff Fogle
Jul 11, 2024
∙ Paid

Share this post

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
England, Colombia Join Spain, Argentina in Championships
Share

International soccer provided a nice summer breeze for sports bettors waiting for the start of NFL and college football. Unfortunately, that’s about to end. But, at least it will end with true blockbusters worthy of global attention.

First England, then Colombia punched their tickets into championship rounds with Wednesday semifinal victories. They will be underdogs to Spain and Argentina respectively this coming Sunday. Let’s see how they advanced.

*England (-0.3 goals) beat Netherlands 2-1, winning possession 58-42% and shots on goal 5-2, but losing corner kicks 3-0. Game was tied 1-1 before 20 minutes had been played, then went without goals until England won it very late (minute #90). So, the stats do a good job of showing what was happening at even strength. England owned possession, but could only tie the sum of shots on goal plus corner kicks 5-5. Getting good shots is more important. England did a much better job of that.

Good enough showing for England after some less-than-awesome advancement through the tournament. But, today was almost another regulation as a short favorite. And, another case where the team didn’t look like a champion in SOG+CK

England’s SOG+CK in Game Order

England 4, Serbia 3

Denmark 11, England 6

England 10, Slovenia 1

England 11, Slovakia 4

England 7, Switzerland 6

England 5, Netherlands 5

As we’ve discussed before, clear advantages over distant also-rans Slovenia and Slovakia. But, now a combined 25-22 loss to Serbia, Denmark, Switzerland, and Netherlands. Suggests a loss in that stat combo to Spain, who’s at least four-tenths of a goal better than anyone in that quartet of testers.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Jeff Fogle
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share