Estimated “Market” Power Ratings for 2025 NCAA Tournament
Based on Early Monday Point Spreads
Here’s a preliminary first effort at estimating “market” Power Ratings for teams playing in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. These aren’t my “personal” ratings for the teams…but my best good-faith guess at how THE MARKET is rating teams based on settled point spreads (as of very early Monday morning). I studied point spreads in the major conference tournaments for guidance, and used computer ratings from kenpom if needed.
You can use these to estimate future point spreads for any possible matchup. Definitely some margin for error in a first batch. Those will work themselves out quickly because there’s so much connectivity in an event like this. At the very least, these are good ballpark estimates for what “the market” is thinking…even if they don’t nail it exactly.
So you can have them handy for your regional brackets, I’ve broken them down by section.
SOUTH
89: Auburn
83: Michigan State, Iowa State, Texas A&M
80: Marquette
79: Louisville, Ole Miss
78: North Carolina
77: Michigan, Creighton
76: Yale, New Mexico
75: UC San Diego
74: San Diego State
69: Lipscomb
68: Bryant
#16 seed TBD
WEST
90: Florida
84: St. John’s Texas Tech
82: Missouri, Maryland
80: Connecticut, Kansas
78: Colorado State
76: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Drake, Memphis
72: Grand Canyon
69: NC Wilmington
66: Nebraska-Omaha
61: Norfolk State
EAST
90: Duke
86: Alabama
82: St. Mary’s, Arizona
81: Wisconsin
80: BYU
79: Mississippi State
78: Baylor, Vanderbilt, VCU
77: Oregon
71: Liberty
69: Akron
65: Montana
63: Robert Morris
#16 seed TBD
MIDWEST
88: Houston
85: Tennessee
84: Gonzaga
81: Clemson, Kentucky, Illinois
80: Purdue
79: Xavier, UCLA
78: Georgia
77: Texas
75: Utah State
74: McNeese
72: High Point
71: Troy
66: Wofford
59: SIU Edwardsville
I’ll update those in a couple of days if there are line moves likely caused by sharp betting…and if there are adjustments after play-in results (maybe the winner of Xavier/Texas or North Carolina/SDSU will gain or lose market respect based on their performances). Then, we’ll keep updating on the fly through the full tournament.
If you’re a sports bettor, it’s good to know “what the market is thinking” because it’s “you against the market” with money at stake. If you’re an enthusiastic fan who doesn’t bet, you’ll at least be aware of how a composite of the most important market influences are evaluating teams. That may keep you from being STUNNED that North Carolina earned a bid (when it would have been, probably, a 2-point to 5-point neutral court favorite over other teams being considered) or why a couple of the 5-12 seed matchups are expected to be competitive even if the seedings are far apart.
And, the exercise might help us spot if the market is overrating or underrating teams or conferences. Pricing just kept underrating UCONN all the way through the event last season. The same way it’s underrated Florida the past three months of this season.
Thanks for reading. Our next report for paid subscribers will be Monday night as we continue our “Lakers with Luka” series game-by-game. Then, early Tuesday morning, a look at how sharps have been betting the first two play-in games in Dayton…St. Francis vs. Alabama State and North Carolina vs San Diego State.
If you’re reading for free and would like to become a paid subscriber, it’s just $20 for a calendar month. That would obviously take you all the way through the NCAA tournament (and a bit beyond). We’ll have sharps reports in advance of every match, and stat reviews focusing on key indicators after every game (all of that will help you evaluate future games in this event). Best value is a calendar year for $75. That’s all college and pro football through the championship tournament and the NFL playoffs…plus the first 2.5 months of 2026. Either way, pennies a day. A lot of content! We’re now well clear of 1,000 articles since this writing project began a year ago August.
Thanks for reading. See you again soon.