Estimated “Market” Power Ratings Update (NFL, NBA, SEC)
Based on Current (or Recent) Point Spreads
Quiet spot on the schedule made this a good time to get caught up with our estimate of “market” Power Ratings. This isn’t how I would personally rate the teams. But, it’s a good faith effort on how the “market” would rate teams on a traditional Power Ratings scale based on current or recent point spreads.
The only remaining NFL game is obviously the Super Bowl on a neutral field. The ratings reflect the current line. I’m still using 4 points for home court advantage in SEC basketball because that appears to be the number that makes everything line up the best. If a game settles on a half point, I adjust 3.5 for that game. In the NBA, I saw that Jeff Sagarin of USA Today had calculated that at only TWO points this season. I played around with recent spreads…and that worked pretty darned well. Home sweet home just doesn’t mean what it used to in all professional sports. If an NBA game settles on a half-point, I use 1.5 for home court.
Let’s start with the NFL…
NFL Estimated “Market” Power Ratings
87: Kansas City
86: Philadelphia
Chiefs are currently -1.5 in that game. Because the game hasn’t been bet up to -2…or immediately sank back to -1.5 at stores that tested -2…it seemed clear that a two point difference would be too much. You regulars know Kansas City had been rated even with or below Philly earlier in the playoffs. Chiefs hadn’t been covering spreads because they seemed focus on position-position-position rather than running up yardage and scoring totals. Now, this “playoff” version of Kansas City is rated a bit better (pending any future line moves). On this scale, 85 or better is typically “championship caliber.” Both teams are that good, as were Baltimore, Buffalo, and Detroit in prior weeks.
NBA: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings
88: Boston, Oklahoma City
85: Denver
84: Cleveland
84: Houston, Memphis, LA Clippers
83: New York, Milwaukee
82: Sacramento, Minnesota
81: LA Lakers
80: Indiana
79: Orlando, Dallas, Phoenix
78: Miami, San Antonio, Golden State
77: Detroit
76: Toronto
75: Atlanta, New Orleans
74: Philadelphia, Utah
73: Chicago
72: Portland
70: Washington
69: Brooklyn
68: Charlotte
NBA is always tricky because key players often sit out for games. That can be worth 3-4 points (sometimes more) for a particular game. But, then the number goes back when the guy returns. Also, lines adjust daily for back-to-backs or other schedule quirks. What you see above is essentially “all else being equal.” Then, when looking at an upcoming matchup, you adjust 2 points for home court, and make any other tweaks that seem logical based on personnel/schedule dynamics.