Handicapping Workshop: Finding MLB Proxy for “Shrink-Wrapped” Approach
Can We Be Dog Lovers Without Dragging Along Dregs
We’ve discussed in recent days how the process of “shrink wrapping” market Power Ratings may be very helpful for capturing a “true” scale. While many in this field have argued for years that “settled” point spreads reflect a “perfected” price…there’s still evidence that numbers are a bit too spread out. Old-school dog lovers wouldn’t still be around if there wasn’t some air that still needed to be taken out of the balloon.
For most betting sports, that’s an easy tweak. Make a good faith estimate of how “the market” is rating teams based on recent point spreads. Then, smush them together a bit. (That’s a scientific term, “smush.”) But, what about baseball, where each of 30 teams arguably has a different team Power Rating depending on the starting pitcher?
Handicappers who follow the sport very closely could pull that off. I’m on the other side of the world for a bit. Just not in the cards. But, is there a way to approximate the same effect? How could we spot “air” in the market in a way that might showcase underdog value against settled betting lines?
Well, we’ll start with an assumption that things are a bit too spread out. Then, we’ll test it. If the market IS too spread out, that would apply to elite pitchers too. They may be overpriced compared to the actual performance-impact differentials on a final score. We can just worry about TEAMS in this initial testing.
Next, I’d want to make sure we weren’t dealing with obvious problems at either end of the spectrum. Are there any teams so GREAT that they deserve to be priced as juggernauts? There’s no reason to fade a team like that. They’re priced as they deserve. Are there any teams so AWFUL that you can’t trust them as underdogs over the long haul? We have seen examples of that across the sports spectrum. Currently in our WNBA coverage, the Connecticut Sun have been a debacle. It’s relatively common in pro sports for one team or a handful of teams to “sink down” to expansion caliber as things fall apart through a season. Nobody would want to waste money betting an underdog-based theory that featured what might be mis-priced horribleness at the bottom of the barrel.
Let’s think about current MLB extremes. Is there any team so GREAT that you should never fade them? The Los Angeles Dodgers were hyped that way entering the season. While still excellent…they haven’t been a historic juggernaut. Just got swept at home by the Astros! No reason to worry about the upper end right now.
What about dregs down at the bottom? Unfortunately, that’s been a theme in MLB this season.
Colorado was expected to be horrible. Turned out to be even worse! Down 31.6 betting units after this past weekend according to the standings page at the Covers website. Rockies should arguably be excluded from any dog-heavy approach.
The Chicago White Sox were also worse than low expectations. Down 13.9 units after this past weekend. Same story. Wouldn’t want to chase with this team unless it showed dramatic, sustained improvement.
The Athletics (waiting for their new Vegas home to be ready) have also been worse than low expectations…down 10 betting units.
We kick those three out, and we’re down to 27 teams we can consider for a dog-heavy approach. Are there any other teams that have either “turned into” dregs this season, or may be in the process of falling into that category as we speak?
Atlanta is down 23.38 units for the season, and has a 12-18 record the last 30 games entering Monday’s action. It’s hard to think of that franchise as a dreg. But, on-field performance in 2025 suggests they’re probably worth excluding from this project.
Cleveland is down 7.83 units…but has slumped to an awful 9-21 the last 30 games. Worst may be ahead for this group. I’d be okay with leaving out the Guardians if we were starting things out this week.
Washington is also 9-21 the last 30 games, and has finally started sinking down to where low preseason expectations had them. Maybe this is a debacle was just delayed. Big front office moves involving this team in recent hours. I’d call the Nats a current dreg.
We kick those three out too, and we’re down to 24 teams worth considering. Anyone else ice cold the past month?
New York Yankees 11-19 (and -9.66 units this season)
Minnesota 11-19 (and -10.89 units this season)
Kansas City 11-19 (and -3.27 units this season)
Pittsburgh slumped early, is -8 units for the season…but a surprising 16-14 the last 30 through the weekend
I’m not ready to call the Yankees and Twins dregs given recent franchise history. And, I want to acknowledge what might be real improvement and spirit with Pittsburgh. Maybe we put THOSE FOUR teams on “probation.” Take them as underdogs if you want, leave them out if you want. Watch for a couple of weeks then decide one way or another if they’re in or out.
Six Dogs at the Pound
Colorado, Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago White Sox, Athletics
At the Petting Zoo as Shrink-Wrapped Underdogs When Getting Odds
NL East: Philly, NYM, Miami
NL Central: All Five Teams (but Pittsburgh on probation)
NL West: LAD, SD, SF, Arizona
AL East: All Five Teams (but NYY on probation)
AL Central: Detroit (Minnesota, KC on probation)
AL West: Houston, Seattle, Texas, LAA
That’s 20 teams for sure, four on probation.
Let’s say, for monitoring purposes, we’ll look at any of the “top 24” teams when getting at least +110 as underdogs. This approach would look to grind out a profit with dogs, essentially trying to go 6-6 ever 12 plays with underdog returns (maybe 6-7 every 13 if enough decent-sized dogs cash).
Winners From Sunday’s card…
Baltimore +130 won at Atlanta 2-1
Tampa Bay +110 won at Minnesota 7-5
Houston +165 won at the LA Dodgers 5-1
Losers From Sunday’s card…
Cincinnati +200 lost at Philadelphia 3-1
LAA +160 lost at Toronto 3-2
NY Mets +160 lost at NYY 6-4
St. Louis +200 lost at Chicago 11-0
Texas +110 lost at San Diego 4-1
Sunday Shrink-wrapped dogs went 3-5 straight up, which was 4.05 and 5 with money line returns. (None of the eight qualifiers were probationary.)
From Monday’s card…
Miami +115 won at Cincinnati 5-1
Milwaukee +120 beat the LA Dodgers 9-1
LA Angels +115 beat Texas 6-5
San Francisco +120 beat Philadelphia 3-1
Pittsburgh +140 lost at Kansas City 9-3 (Bucs on probation)
That’s a 4-1 record Monday night. It’s tempting to knock off the probation teams whenever they lose…but I won’t do that for now. Maybe in a week we’ll just be down to 20 teams worth “trusting” to grind out a profit at plus odds. (Note: I started writing this article last night, before Monday’s games were played…so a pleasant coincidence that those finished well minutes before publication!)
Two-Day Pure Record: 7 wins, 6 losses for qualifying underdogs of +110 or more
Two-Day Betting Record: 8.75 wins, 6 losses
On Tuesday’s Ticket
Either NYM or Baltimore at +110 or better
Either TB or Detroit at +110 or better
Either Seattle or NYY at +110 or better
Either Miami or Cincinnati at +110 or better
Either LAD or Milwaukee at +110 or better
Pittsburgh at +110 or better at KC
Either Cubs or Minnesota at +110 or better
Either Texas or LAA at +110 or better
Either Arizona or San Diego at +110 or better
Either Philadelphia or San Francisco at +110 or better
Some of those won’t have qualifiers because games will be lined near pick-em. There won’t be a dog getting +110. I obviously didn’t list the big dog spots for excluded Colorado, CWS, Washington, Cleveland, and the head-to-head game with Atlanta/Athletics. Those games won’t be part of this study.
We can spend some time this week checking to see if there might be too much air in the MLB market’s balloon. At least in terms of how non-dregs compare with each other. Then, we’ll go from there (or tinker with something else) depending on how the week plays out.
Busy summer ahead. Less than a month away from the start of NFL Preseason. Sharps reports will likely return for those. Always fun to see how smart money is betting those vulnerable attractions. Our WNBA Workshops will continue for the foreseeable future. Thinking of putting together something for college football regarding all the QB transfers from team to team. Would be a good refresher to see what all those guys did last year before they climbed (or fell down) the ladder.
Thanks for reading and subscribing. See you again soon.
Love this baseball “shrink wrap” idea.