Honestly, Thanksgiving Football Mostly a Bunch of Turkeys!
Wild (but Turkey-Brained) Ending in Detroit, Then Yawners
Even if watching Thanksgiving Day action turned out to be a disappointment…studying key indicator stats is well worth your time because you might learn something important about future action. Let’s see what important numbers are saying about Thursday’s cornucopia…
(Note that YPP stands for yards-per-play, DRIVE POINTS are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more, and CLUTCH TD DRIVING DISTANCE is the sum total of yardage scored only on touchdowns when it was a one-score game.)
*Detroit (-10) only beat Chicago 23-20, winning yardage 405-301, YPP 5.9 to 5.1, rushing 194-78, and clutch TD driving distance 90-0. Chasing most of the way, Chicago won third downs 47-36%, drive points 20-14, TOs 1-0 (but Chicago had two 4D failures), and red zone TD pct 100% (1/10 to 40% (2/5).
Detroit was up 16-0 at the half, and started coasting way too soon. Looks like the Lions decided their defense wouldn’t have trouble holding on to a double-digit lead (still 23-13 with six minutes to go in the game), only to sweat the ending. If Chicago had an experienced coach/QB combo…we probably would have gone overtime (as you likely know by the time you’re reading this). Detroit was in almost full control until taking its foot off the gas too soon. Still won yardage 405-301 despite taking its foot off the gas too soon!
Drives in Innings
CHI: x-x-x-D-D----7-6-x-7-T (3/10)
DET: 3-7-3-3-F----7-x-M-x (2/9)
“D” stands for loss on Downs. “F” stands for Fumble. “M” stands for Missed field goal. “T” stands for Time running out on a non-kneel down drive at the end of a half. All the x’s are punts.
You can see that Detroit scored on its first four drives (and five of its first six), while Chicago took a goose-egg in the first half. Lions didn’t have as much margin for error as they thought. Probably something we should pay attention to. It must be tempting for coaches to assume their “great” defenses will keep playing great through a full season. But, fatigue does set it…particularly if you’ve become overly reliant on that defense (not the case with Detroit, but probably true with the LA Chargers, others). Coaches can’t just assume “it’s always worked before” with something that can wear out or break down. Detroit’s previously OUTSTANDING defense allowed three second half TDs in five possessions (and almost a fourth score) to a ROOKIE quarterback playing on the road.
Got away with it here. Will be more difficult in the playoffs against more experienced QBs. It’s easier to hold onto leads with a fresh early-season defense than with a tiring defense in the second half of a season or in the playoffs. Detroit moves to 11-1 on the season. Chicago falls to 4-8…but continues to be more competitive since firing the offensive coordinator.
*Dallas (-4) beat the NY Giants 27-20, winning yardage 317-247, YPP 4.7 to 4.2, third downs 47-25%, rushing 122-116, and TOs 2-0 (though Dallas had a 4D failure). NYG won drive points 14-10, clutch TD driving distance 70-38 (Dallas built a lead helped by an INT return TD), and red zone TD pct 100% (2/2) to 50% (2/4). Grinder stats even though the game went Over. Cowboys only had 20 points outside of the pick six. Giants went 80 yards for a garbage time TD in the final minutes. More like a 20-13 type grinder. Drew Lock started for the Giants rather than Devito. Late announcement. Point spread closed Dallas -4, likely influenced by that development.
NYG: 7-I-x-x-3-x-T----F-x-3-x-7 (2/12)
DAL: 3-3-L-D-x-x-x----7-7-x-x (2/10)
“I” stands for Interception. “L” stands for a Lost drive when the offense skips a possession because of a defensive TD or a muffed punt. I use those for placeholders to keep things lined up, but don’t count them as failed possessions. (Note that Dallas had a final drive where it gained a first down, THEN did kneel downs. I just tossed that drive out because the Cowboys weren’t trying to score.)
Giants scored on its first possession then did nothing for a few hours until garbage time. Dallas came out of halftime well to take command. Dallas rises to 5-7 (possibly the worst 5-7 team in league history), while the Giants fall to 2-10 in the inverted chase for a #1 draft pick. Man, that 5-7 record for Dallas snuck up on me. Wins over Washington and NYG the past two weeks…but the market will still likely price the Cowboys with other dregs with Rush at QB. Giants “with Lock” are expansion caliber. Dallas would be priced barely above that on a neutral field.
*Green Bay (-3.5) beat Miami 30-17, winning yardage 388-375, YPP 7.3 to 5.8, third downs 45-29%, rushing 114-39, drive points 20-14, clutch TD driving distance 85-0, TOs 1-0 (Miami also had two 4D failures), and red zone TD pct 60% (3/5) to 50% (2/4). Packers helped early by a Miami muffed punt return that set up a very cheap 9-yd TD drive. Miami picked up some garbage time TDs late, scoring when down 27-3 and 30-11. Packers won “the middle of the game” pretty handily if you take out the early cheapie and the late garbage.
MIA: L-x-3-x-D----x-8-D-6-T (2/9)
GBY: x-7-7-x-7-3----3-x-3-x (3/10)
After that cheap TD, Packers still scored on four of their next five possessions (20 points on two TDs and two FGs). Miami really didn’t do anything until down 27-3. You’d have to call this a flunked litmus test for Miami in terms of playing in cold weather and/or stepping up in class. Dolphins fall to 5-7, and once again look like a team (with Tua) that can beat also-rans but not hang with playoff caliber challenges. Green Bay rises to 9-3…still not as good as Detroit and Philadelphia, but solidifying its case for “best of the rest” in the NFC.
Thanksgiving night in college football…
*Memphis (+13) upset Tulane 34-24, winning yardage 454-374, third downs 63-55%, rushing 236-57, drive points 27-14, clutch TD driving distance 203-63, and TOs 3-0 (though Memphis had a 4D failure). Tulane won YPP 7.3 to 5.9 making some big plays while chasing from way back. Stunning development considering the point spread, and all the hype I was hearing through the week about how Tulane was the best mid-major team and deserved a slot in the playoffs. Memphis in control most of the night. Really owned the point of attack…MARCHING to TD drives when it mattered. Tulane scored while chasing, with its last two TDS coming when down 27-10 and 34-17.
MEM: 7-x-7-3-D----7-3-x-x-7 (4/10)
TULA: 3-7-x-x-----F-x-7-F-I-7 (3/10)
Again, that’s a two-TD favorite playing from behind most of the night. You regulars know I’ve been focusing on major conferences this season. Most of what I knew of Tulane came months ago when it blew what should have been a home upset of Kansas State, then looked awful at Oklahoma (which seemed even worse in context the next two months). Running up the score on cupcakes may have fooled many in the media and some in betting markets. At no point did Tulane look like it should have opened -11, or steamed to -13. That clutch TD driving distance edge of 203-63 is tough to accomplish as a big road dog.
Tulane can bounce back in the American Athletic Conference Championship game next Friday vs. Army. Maybe having already clinched that spot in the league final zapped some of the Green Wave’s focus/intensity. Well, that and reading press clippings about how great they were.
That’s it for this recap of Thanksgiving football. If you like reading this kind of material, cost for a subscription is just $20 for a calendar month, $75 for a calendar year. You get stat recaps like these for every NFL game, and major conference college football. That “drives in innings” feature is mostly for the NFL right now…but I will do that for conference championship games, bowl games, and playoff games.
We also have reports on “how the sharps are betting” for all NFL and major conference action. We’ll do that again for every game in the NCAA basketball tournament, the NBA Playoffs, and the MLB Playoffs. Other fun stuff too. If you LIKE this kinda material…pennies a day for a lot of material. (You can also sign up for a “free” subscription that gets you the first couple paragraphs of most articles. Will certainly leave you wanting more on the big schedule days).
Thanks for reading. Thanks to all of you who have already subscribed. See you subscribers again soon with more sharps reports for weekend football.