How Brutal Will the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2024 Schedule Turn Out?
Looks Grueling on Paper…but Games Aren’t Played on Paper
One of the hot topics this NFL off season has been the difficult schedule facing the Pittsburgh Steelers this Fall. Everybody was REALLY talking about it when the schedules were announced not too long ago. And, many broadcast discussions you’ll see in coming days about Regular Season Win Totals will involve Pittsburgh because that gauntlet is already so prominently on the radar.
Quick Summation
6 divisional games vs. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland
2 games vs. NFC East powers Dallas and Philadelphia
1 game vs. defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City
8 games vs. a “parity pack” (where Pittsburgh resides) that will probably be relative coin flips
Under 8.5 wins was a popular early bet because it’s so hard to just pencil in 9 or 10 wins with so many tough battles AND so many coin flips. Skeptics can see a disaster. Even the most avid Steelers fans have to scratch their chin and marvel at the gauntlet.
I think Gill Alexander on VSiN was the first person I saw discuss how back-loaded the schedule is. Others may have noticed that first…but it’s not like I can see all the shows all the time! I know they talked about it on the South Point show with Jeff Parles and Alex White too. Definitely a valid point. Not only are there a lot of tough games, but most of them come back-to-back in the second half of the schedule. How can you close a season well if you’re facing playoff contenders every week?
Let me give you a shorthand of that. Here are current “market” Power Ratings for Pittsburgh’s opponents broken down into hunks. Takes up too much space to list all the teams…and many of you have seen those lists elsewhere already. In the market estimate we ran a couple weeks ago, Pittsburgh sat at 78. Here’s what the Steelers are looking at.
First 4 Games: 79, 76, 78, 78
Next 5 Games: 82, 76, 82, 76, 76
Final 8 Games: 84, 80, 82, 80, 82, 84, 85, 82
Man, those last two months are harsh. But, if you think about it for awhile…and remember that games AREN’T played on paper, it might become a lot less harsh. Why?
QUARTERBACK INJURIES!
The injury rate for NFL quarterbacks is a lot greater than zero. And, the deeper you get into a season, the more time there’s been for star quarterbacks to get knocked out, or hobbled when they’re still trying to play. We know that very few playoff contenders don’t lose anything when a QB is hurt. An 82 might drop to a 77. An 84 might drop to an 80, worse if the backup is young and relatively inexperienced.
When we get there, that string of teams in the 80’s may instead include a few in the mid-to-high 70’s. Yes, Pittsburgh could also suffer a QB injury. But, right now, the expectation is that the roster will have two different QB’s capable of keeping the Steelers in the 77-78 range on our Power Ratings scale. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. One goes out, the other comes in. This isn’t Joe Burrow being replaced by Jake Browning. Or, Aaron Rodgers being replaced by Richie Cunningham.
So, if you’re trying to project regular season wins…for the Steelers or ANYBODY…it’s important to remember the role that randomness of key injuries can play. Potential mismatches are likely more coin-flippier than they seem three or four months out. Mentally bring the powers back a bit toward the parity pack. Lift the cupcakes up a bit because they will have had time to solve problems, or discover a budding star (Houston last season).
Betting markets are pretty savvy, particularly AFTER sharps have tightened openers posted by oddsmakers. Sharps map out the percentages for each game…and many also account for randomness (regressing a little toward .500, but regressing less if there’s a good backup QB on the roster).
You may find that accounting for the percentage potential of injuries to those late season foes brings YOUR expectation closer to the 8 or 8.5 wins projected by current markets (Draftkings has Under 8.5 juiced to -165 as I write this). Not because Wilson or Fields will lift the Steelers to an 82 on our scale…but because some late-season opponents will drift back to “Steelers caliber.” That would turn some 70/30 loss scenarios into something more like 50/50. Every percentage point adds up.
Pittsburgh may “currently” be “worse” than opponents in 11 of their 17 scheduled games. Fog of war can be pretty thick this far out.
That’s it for Saturday’s article. Back with you Sunday for another general topic article. NBA playoff coverage resumes Thursday when we see how sharps are betting Game One of the Boston/Dallas series. Thanks for reading. See you again soon.