How NFL Sharps are Betting Denver at the LA Chargers Thursday (12/19)

Likely AFC Wildcards Tussle in Tinseltown

Big game in the AFC playoff picture Thursday night when the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers. Both are likely wildcard entries…though that’s not locked in yet. Denver is in safer position right now with a 9-5 record. Chargers are a game back at 8-6. Nobody’s 7-7 in the AFC. Three teams (Miami, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis) are 6-8. Chargers would obviously prefer not to give any of that trio more hope.

Broncos and Chargers have been rated fairly even all season. Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the game so far.

Denver at the LA Chargers

Opening line of LAC -3 before last week’s games were played stood pat into the new week. And then some. Finally, visiting Denver got enough respected interest to bring the game below the key number to 2.5. Sometimes it can take awhile for sports books to move a high-profile matchup off the three.

Many sports books are charging extra juice to take the Chargers -2.5. Wouldn’t be a shock if this game rose back to three. Might be one where the “right” number is Chargers -2.75…and sharps bet around that for value. Or, maybe the “right” number is Chargers -2.5…but the public will find the host with greater need to be a logical bet at such a low price.

We can definitely say that Denver +3 qualifies as a sharp bet percentage-wise. Might be just as definite by kickoff that LAC -2.5 is the same. Percentages really can swing on that key number.

Haven’t done this in awhile. Imagine the game is played nine times. The Chargers win by four points or more THREE times. TWO games land exactly on three. Denver either loses by 1 or 2, forces an OT tie, or wins outright FOUR times.

*Chargers win by 4 points or more THREE TIMES

*Lands exactly on the key number TWO TIMES

*Broncos Buck FOUR TIMES

In that sample, Chargers -2.5 goes 5-4 for a winning record. But, Broncos +3 also posts a winning record at 4-3 with two pushes. Bets on both teams can be sharp just a half point apart.