How NFL Sharps are Betting Divisional Round
Smart Money Eyeing Underdogs
Sports books will mostly be rooting for underdogs this weekend in the NFL playoffs. These are HUGE betting attractions for the general public. And, the general public loves betting favorites.
In fact, at point spreads above a field goal, it’s almost impossible to get recreational bettors to take the points. It’s favorite or pass. Or, if they don’t lay the points with the favorite, they tease them down to a smaller number, or just bet them in money line parlays where all the favorite has to do is win straight up.
You’ve probably heard (for decades) that it’s the oddsmakers job to “split the action” so that half the money is on one side, half on the other…and sports books simply profit from the 10% vigorish on lost bets (bettors risk 11 to win 10). It’s never really been true. Weekends like this are why. You can’t split the action in a world where the vast majority of bettors won’t take the underdog.
What about sharps? Don’t they balance out the action? While sharps do bet “bigger” than squares, there’s not actually a lot of them. The sheer volume of public money dwarfs smart money. Sportsbooks have to decide how to balance their risk on one-sided positions. They learn from how the sharps are betting various prices to most-intelligently position themselves.
If all the favorites win, sports books take a bath. If, like last week, underdogs pull some upsets (Green Bay over Dallas was huge, but Houston and Tampa Bay also scored upsets, while the LA Rams covered in a close loss), then oddsmakers bathe in champagne.
That’s the backdrop for this week’s action. Particularly Saturday, when favorites to reach the Super Bowl are both laying big numbers off a bye.
Saturday
Houston at Baltimore (4:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN)
An opener of Baltimore -9.5 stood relatively pat most of the week. That right there told you sharps DIDN’T’ like the Ravens at that price. We all know the public wants to bet favorites, but usually does so later in the week or on game day. Any sharp wanting Baltimore would have bet EARLY to get in below the key number of -10. Sharps DIDN’T do that. They waited to see if the line might go to ten so they could take the underdog at double digits.
Some stores tested Baltimore -9 to see what would happen. As I write this, DraftKings is still at -9. Favorite money did start coming in. Most stores moved back to -9.5 fairly quickly. Any quants projecting a blowout for a healthy, fresh, fantastic team hosting a rookie QB were okay laying -9. Early public money started hitting the board. Very likely that Baltimore -9 will be a floor unless the weather forecast worsens to create “equalizer” conditions (though, Houston may be like Miami in that it’s not well-suited to cold, windy weather).
We’ll have to see how one-sided public money gets on game day. It’s absolutely CERTAIN that sharps would jump in hard on Houston +10 because CJ Stroud has been (legitimately) respected so much in sharp Power Ratings. Baltimore’s better…but not 7-8 points better on a neutral field.
The opening total of 46 to 46.5 has come way down to 43.5 because of the weather. Temperatures will be in the mid 20’s with the wind blowing at 15-17 mph. That’s not as bad as what we saw in some spots last week (even here in Austin, TX!). But, it is IMPACTFUL football weather. You regulars know that from both college and pro football this past season. Even if it was HOT with winds in the 15-17 mph range, sharps cashed more than their share of tickets betting Under.
Sharps clearly loved Under 45 or more, and still liked Under 44 or more. They also know that Baltimore had a tendency to sit on big leads (which you can do with a great defense and a dominant run game). It’s possible (or very likely) that sharps thinking Baltimore could impose its will preferred to bet Under in these conditions rather than lay the points.
Summing up, sharps would love Houston +10 if they saw it, but may have to settle for Houston +9.5. Some modelers will lay Baltimore -9. Sharps have been betting Under, with no confirmation yet that 43.5 will be a floor. Weather conditions in the final hours before kickoff will likely determine where the Over/Under ends up.