How Sharps are Betting Army/Notre Dame and More

Includes: Alabama/Oklahoma, USC/UCLA

Final college football sharps report of the weekend. We’ll start with the game many of you will be watching…Army vs. Notre Dame from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Very important game to both. Notre Dame needs style points as a likely at-large bid to the playoffs. Army needs to run the table to be considered for a bid…and upsetting Notre Dame as a double-digit underdog would be a HUGE feather in the Cadets’ cap.

Notre Dame vs. Army (in the Bronx, NY)

Opening line of Notre Dame -17 came down very quickly to -14.5. Suggested an oddsmaker mistake that was quickly corrected. Army can play! And, Notre Dame can be inconsistent (don’t forget about the Northern Illinois debacle in a September grinder). That’s what made Indiana/Ohio State so weird. That game waited most of the week…THEN came down three points. This was corrected right away. A lot of line movement from that initial drop. Floor was the relatively key number of ND -14 (key, in that price range). The “new” ceiling was bet up as high as ND -15.5 (very temporarily). Current line is back down to the floor of -14. Sharps arguing with their money fairly emphatically. And, this kind of game will draw a lot of public interest. Recreational bettors love laying points with ND in TV games. And, many football fans who spent time in the Army will back the Cadets as big TV underdogs. Expect a heavily bet game.

What would be considered “sharp” to this point? On the favorite side, there appear to be quants that think ND -14 offers value. Very talented team, with a defense capable of shutting down Army. Support at -14.5 or more is probably from the public. Dog lovers seem very happy to take Army +15…with many still taking the hook at +14.5. We’ll see what happens on game day. For now, that looks to be the sharp “range.” NC -14, Army +15.

Opening total of 45 initially dropped to 44. But, most recent action has driven the line up to 45.5. A good chance that any “reads” of the total will be polluted by public money. Recreational bettors almost always bet Overs unless there’s a blizzard or a downpour. Something in the mid 40’s will look “low” to anyone in the public thinking Notre Dame’s going to win a blowout.

Sharps know all of the following:

*Current forecast for wind is around 14 mph…which can be very tricky for football, in a baseball stadium.

*Neutral site games played in baseball stadiums often have trouble with the playing surface. And, that trouble hurts offense and kickers. (Oddsmakers know this too, which is why the game opened so low!).

*Playing clocks run more quickly in games with a lot of running. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a lot of running here.

That initial drop from 45 to 44 was likely sharp. I’d expect sharps to re-invest along the way if public money on the Over keeps lifting the line. Public money dwarfs sharp money in big TV games. It’s possible that some quants are getting gradings to Over 44 and 44.5 (maybe even some at 45). Notre Dame’s offense has put up some numbers recently. Irish have covered six straight…and four of those six went Over because ND was lighting up the scoreboard. How do you explain to a computer about crappy turf and swirling winds in a baseball stadium?

Great betting game…in both a “sharp vs. sharp” and “sharp vs. square” dynamic.