Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
How Sharps are Betting Florida vs. Houston for the National Championship

How Sharps are Betting Florida vs. Houston for the National Championship

Limited Early Movement Suggests Tight Trading Range

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Jeff Fogle
Apr 07, 2025
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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
How Sharps are Betting Florida vs. Houston for the National Championship
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As the sun gets ready to rise on National Championship Monday in the 2024-25 college basketball season, line movement has been quiet so far in the battle between #1 seeds Florida and Houston.

You regulars know that point spreads often skate through the relatively “dead” zone of 0-1-2 in basketball betting. Games can’t even land on zero because of overtime (though “pick-em” is a landing spot in the betting sequence for toss-up games). Final victory margins of 1 and 2 are a lot less common that fans and casual bettors realize. They do happen. But, not as often as highlight reels of buzzer beaters would suggest. (Even Houston’s dramatic rally this past Saturday landed on three because of late free throws).

Yet, in a trading range where lines often scoot around because sports books aren’t afraid of pushes or getting middled….Monday’s title tilt has been sitting on “Florida -1” for hours. Either hardly anyone’s betting yet…action is relatively balanced with two #1 seed squaring off…or action is shaded to favored Florida, but sports books are confident Houston +1.5 would get hit very hard by sharps, and they’d rather not go there if they don’t have to.

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