Second round bracket in the 2024 NBA playoffs is taking shape. But there are still TWO more spots to be filled. That could happen as early as Friday night with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks carrying 3-2 leads into battle against the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Clippers. Though, betting markets currently project at least one Game Seven on Sunday.
Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting the two games you’ll be watching Friday night.
Cleveland at Orlando (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Opening line of Orlando -3.5 sat for a very long time before rising to -4. That tells us that sharps DON’T like Orlando -3.5. Professional bettors would have jumped in much more quickly. Public interest in a cheap home favorite in a bounce back spot finally lifted the line to four. Dog lovers jumped pretty hard when they saw the four. So, clearly, right now, the “sharp” play is Cleveland +4. Wise Guys aren’t interested in Orlando -3.5, but would probably lay -3 just because the power of the bounce back is relevant with younger teams that aren’t worn down from fatigue…and the fact that Orlando won the first two games so easily on this floor.
Opening total of 202.5 crashed down to a floor of 199, consistent with what we’ve seen all week. Sharps wanting to bet Unders get in early amidst a feeding frenzy involving each other. It’s not a sure thing that the public will lift the line later. Sharps expecting defensive struggles seem to be happy going Under anything in the 200’s this week. (Of course, both games went Over last night because a of monster shooting).
There was a hard bounce off the floor to what might be a new “mid-session” ceiling of 201 before Under money jumped back in. Line is currently 200.5 as I write this. Let’s sum it up this way…
*Sharps LOVE Under 202.5, 202, and 201.5
*Sharps like Under 201
*Some quants like Over 199, 199.5, and Over 200 (some public money mixed in there as well…recreational bettors love rooting for points, and they’ve won the few games doing so.
Feels like we’ll be in a fairly tight trading range from this point forward.