How Sharps are Betting Houston/Golden State G6 (5/2)
Friday’s Only NBA Game Will Be Heavily Bet
With only one attraction on the Friday night ticket, you can be sure that Game Six of the Houston/Golden State NBA playoff series will be heavily bet. Many recreational bettors like rooting for Golden State anyway. That goes back years. Friday, the Warriors are an affordable home favorite in a bounce-back spot with a chance to wrap up the series. Public will find that irresistible.
Will Houston get any support? Less likely from the public. Rockets weren’t a marquee team during the regular season, despite the impressive won-lost record. No superstar appeal. Defense may win championships, but it doesn’t put fannies in the seats or eyeballs on the TV for teams that AREN’T winning championships. There will certainly be old-school dog lovers placing value bets when they think a ceiling has been hit.
The Case for Houston
*Strong defense
*Effective offense whenever Draymond Green has to sit
*Point spread covers in three of the last four games
*Younger legs, which has been important across the league
*Survival is at stake!
It usually doesn’t take that much to talk sharps into defensive dogs. Main concern would be any potential towel-tossing if the Rockets fall behind. We’ve seen too much of that already from teams with their backs to the wall. Miami, Orlando, and even the Lakers missed the market by quite a bit in close-outs. Houston could too.
Let’s see what numbers have been attracting sharp money so far…
Houston at Golden State (Golden State leads 3-2)
Opening line of Golden State -3.5 was bet up very quickly to -5. Sharps wanting the Warriors knew they had to get their money in right away to beat the public. Certainly some early public money too given Golden State’s proximity to Vegas (fans who watched G5 in sports books in “prime time” in the Pacific could bet right away. Sharps LOVED Golden State -3.5, with some still laying -4. The final tick from -4.5 to -5 was probably from the public.
Dog lovers jumped in at +5. They seemed confident (incorrectly, it turned out) that would be a ceiling given how things had been trending for Houston in recent outings. Prior game at this site was a nail biter that GS only won by three. The public won’t be betting Houston. A line drop to -4.5 must have been caused by smart money. Some sharps liked Golden State +5.
Then the public bet the line back up to -5. A few hours later, the public lifted that to a new ceiling of -5.5 (as or publication time). Stage looks to be set for a tug-of war between the public on GS -5 (or less) and sharp dog lovers on Houston +5.5 (or more).