How Sharps are Betting Indiana/OKC in G1 of NBA Finals
Active Tug-of-War So Far in Early Betting
There sure has been a lot of chatter about the 2025 NBA Finals Series considering its lack of marquee value.
Two teams who don’t have championship histories
Two teams from small markets
Two teams who aren’t on TV during the regular season unless they’re playing teams from big markets
Two teams whose stars have had trouble breaking through mainstream media firewalls to get deserving attention
This was supposed to be a black hole matchup. But, I’m gratified to see a lot of coverage about how great Oklahoma City has become…how fun it is to watch Indiana play…and how his series is a recent culmination of how the sport has evolved. Maybe it’s exciting in a different way than we’re used to. Enjoying the build up and the buzz.
How are sharps (professional wagerers) betting Thursday night’s Game One? Let’s take a look.
Indiana at Oklahoma City
Opening line of Oklahoma City -9 has gone back and forth with -9.5 all week. Very clear tug-of-war as sharps argue with their money. You regulars know that the public almost always lays points in big TV games. That’s in the mix as well.
Oklahoma City -9: a mix of quants getting blowout gradings for a dominant host (particularly those that emphasize a full season of stats rather than just playoff form)…situational handicappers who know that G1 of a big series is often a home blowout before “things get interesting” with a zig-zag dog in G2…and the public wanting to lay points with a dominant team in a game they’re going to watch on TV.
Indiana +9.5: a mix of dog lovers who CAN’T BELIEVE they’re getting this many points from a talented conference champion that’s been playing high-level basketball the whole calendar year…quants who emphasize “recent form” that rate this as a competitive series based on stats…and other sharps who don’t have these teams very far apart in their Power Ratings. If home court is worth 3 points, that means OKC would have to be SEVEN points better on a neutral court to justify liking the host at this price. It takes SIX to SIX-AND-A-HALF points just to get to the market price. Whether you make projections with stats or Power Ratings…that’s a significant difference. (Note: the public rarely bets underdogs unless it’s a big market team getting points….it’s fairly safe to assume that “most” of the money on Indiana +9.5 is sharp.)
The game itself is being bet like the “right” line is Oklahoma City -9.25. If that were the case, both OKC -9 and Indiana +9.5 would make sense for value bets. Because chalk is a mix of sharp and square money, while the dog is almost all sharp…maybe think of the “right” line as OKC -9.15 or so.
If you’re new to reading about how sharps bet, this might strike you as odd. “Sharps like BOTH teams?!”
YES! In real-world betting, sharps are betting against numbers…not just “loving” a team the way recreational bettors do. Some sharps like Oklahoma City -9 for a value bet. More sharps like Indiana +9.5 for a value bet or something stronger. That’s how sharps have been betting G1 of the 2025 NBA Finals so far. Unlikely that will change unless there’s an injury or other important personnel development between now and tipoff.