Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Share this post

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
How Sharps are Betting Indiana/OKC in G7 of NBA Championships

How Sharps are Betting Indiana/OKC in G7 of NBA Championships

What are Market Expectations in This Much-Anticipated Series Finale?!

Jeff Fogle's avatar
Jeff Fogle
Jun 22, 2025
∙ Paid
4

Share this post

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
How Sharps are Betting Indiana/OKC in G7 of NBA Championships
Share

Just hours away from the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. Game Seven of the Championship Finals. Doesn’t get any more exciting than that. Maybe less buzz this year than others because traditional, historic powers aren’t involved. Definitely a strong possibility that powers of the immediate future are in action Sunday night. One of them is guaranteed to make history.

Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting this championship showdown so far…

Indiana at Oklahoma City (Series tied 3-3)

Opening line of OKC -8.5 was bet down very quickly to -8. Though we’ve all seen a few G7 blowouts in recent years…the general historic trend is for slower, more tightly played games because every possession means so much. Sharps are aware that Oklahoma City crushed Denver 125-93 at a comparable price in G7 of that series…and that Denver crushed the LA Clippers 120-101 near pick-em in that seventh game. But, HISTORICALLY, dog lovers in particular know there’s value expecting a competitive finale.

  • Sometimes it goes right down to the wire

  • Sometimes the underdog plays great and wins outright

  • Sometimes a perceived power isn’t quite up to the moment when it’s time to reach for the ring and grab it

Dog lovers were surprised to get +8.5 points with Tyrese Haliburton back on the court and contributing again. Indiana didn’t look outmatched at all against the Thunder when Haliburton wasn’t hobbling.

After a long stay at OKC -8 (which told everyone sharps didn’t like OKC at that price either), we saw another drop down to the current line of OKC -7.5. Very strong pressure on the underdog considering that recreational bettors prefer rooting for home favorites in big TV games. Particularly with OKC thriving the last time they encountered this challenge. Sports books were (and still are) inviting the public to lay -7.5 with OKC.

As I write this, there hasn’t been immediate buy back on the Thunder. Sharps may not like OKC -7.5 either! Wise Guys LOVE Indiana +8.5, and still like Indiana +8 strongly enough to drop the line lower against traditional public tendencies. I can’t emphasize this enough…VERY one-sided SHARP support for Indiana over OKC so far in this price range.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Jeff Fogle
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share