How Sharps are Betting NFL Divisional Round (January 18-19)
Has Smart Money Been Finding Smart Choices?
We’ve been waiting all week for these. Let’s get to it!
Houston at Kansas City
Opening line of Kansas City -7.5 has climbed the ladder to -8.5. Very tricky situation for sports books wanting to balance their risk. And, a tricky situation for outsiders trying to accurately “read” sharp sentiment.
*It’s definitely true that sharps LOVE Kansas City in six-point teasers as long as they can move the line down from 7.5, 8, or 8.5 to 1.5, 2, or 2.5. That’s the classic “basic strategy” approach. Always sound. But, today it might involve BOTH playoff games. And…both hosts have GREAT QUARTERBACKS who are very good at finding ways to win in the final minutes if needed. Both visitors have some question marks. Houston’s offense has struggled all season. Washington’s offense is dangerous, but is led by a rookie QB. And, rookie QBs are far from a sure thing to execute under playoff pressure. Sharps loved that teaser when Detroit was laying less than -9 to Washington. Chiefs may find other dance partners through the weekend depending on line movement.
*It’s definitely true that sharps DON’T like Houston +7.5. That game moved away from the key number of 7. If it was “too high,” some dog lovers would have taken the Texans right away. Others would have shown resistance at +8. Not much of that (a little, at +8).
*Sharps already invested in teasers aren’t looking to bet any more on Kansas City at the regular line. This hasn’t been a blowout team through the season. KC’s approach is to safely get the job done in hopes of keeping everyone healthy for the future. It was likely the public laying -8 with Kansas City through the week, rather than sharps.
*Dog lovers would very probably take Houston +9 if it became available. Stellar defense. Very cold weather. A favorite that may not pile on the points in a win. A favorite that could be flat because it recently beat this same opponent on this same field. Houston is a defensive dog. That’s a lot of points for a defensive dog in a low-totaled game.
How do sports books deal with all THAT? If they lift KC out of the teaser window to -9, then smart money pours in on Houston. If sports books DON’T lift the game up to nine, they’re essentially one-sided rooting for Houston +2.5 with a crappy offense. Not a fun place to be in.
For now, we know sharps like KC -2.5 (or -2 or -1.5) in teasers…and that dog lovers (and other sharps) would very likely take Houston +9 or better as a defensive dog. Some might settle for +8.5 on game day if nine never comes into play.
Opening total of 42.5 has come down to 41.5. There has been some back and forth between 41.5 and 42, which looks like sharps arguing with their money. The public usually bets Overs in big TV games because it’s more fun to root for points than for defenses. The fact that 41.5 is winning the day suggests that Under 42 or more is sharper than the “back-and-forth” money on Over 41.5.
Weather is supposed to be COLD (particularly for a team from Houston), with game-time temperatures in the low 20’s and a wind around 10 mph. Plenty of time for that forecast to change. For now, that’s Under weather…and Houston was an Under team even when playing indoors. Sharps like Under 42 or more in these conditions.
Given that initial interest in KC and Under, should WE be thinking about Houston Under its team total for a lean? On the one hand, it makes A LOT of sense. Out of climate team with a shaky offense on the road in unfriendly weather while dealing with playoff pressure. On the other…the market score of Kansas City 25, Houston 16.5 doesn’t leave much margin for error. Special teams points…defensive TD…cheap TD off a Mahomes INT (he’s throwing those early in games too often). Jeez, garbage time could even be an issue if the Chiefs are able to build a comfortable lead. I wouldn’t try to talk you out of that if you were already thinking that way. I won’t call it a lean. I’m pretty sure I would have at 17.5 with those winds around 10 mph.