How Sharps are Betting NFL Week 9
Includes Denver/Baltimore, Possible Weather in Detroit/GB
Busy Sunday slate with only two bye teams this week (Pittsburgh and San Franciso). Let’s see how sharps have been betting Sunday and Monday action so far. Games are presented in the order they’re listed at the respected Don Best website.
New England at Tennessee
Opening line of Tennessee -3.5 has moved back and forth with the key number of three through the week. Not a frantic back-and-forth. But sharps betting for value. Dog lovers will take the Pats with the hook after that good performance against the Jets last week…particularly with Tennessee in a tailspin. Sharps skeptical about the Pats playing two good games in a row will lay the field goal. Some potential that Levis will return for the Titans. Definitely some sharps waiting to see what happens there. Kinda easy to take New England +3.5 against Rudolph.
Opening total of 38.5 spent some time up at 39.5 before a fall to a current floor of 38. QB issue also in play on this proposition. Might be some weather influence in the fall from 39.5 to 38 with winds forecast in the 10-12 mph range. That’s not particularly troublesome…but weather doesn’t have to be all that troublesome to derail either of these offenses. Sharps like Under 38.5 or more at the moment…pending a decision on Levis and any weather updates.
LA Chargers at Cleveland
Opening line of LA Chargers -4.5 before last week’s games were played first moved to -3 after the Browns played well with Winston…then kept coming down to a floor of LAC -1 before a bounce. Can see why dog lovers would want Winston and the possibly rejuvenated Browns getting points from a West Coast team in a bad-body-clock scenario. Quants might also like the matchup of Cleveland’s defense against Harbaugh’s super-conservative often-too-sluggish offense. But, there was that bounce off the one. Money that matters did lay -1 with LAC. Asking Harbaugh and Herbert to find away to win a coin flip game could turn out to be sound reasoning. Will be interesting to monitor movement from now until kickoff.
Opening total of 39 before last week’s games were played “re-opened” in the low 40’s before climbing the ladder to a ceiling of 43. If Cleveland’s offense is going to be clearly better with Winston, Over/Unders obviously have to rise. That most recent tick downward might be weather related. Chance for winds in the 10-12 mph range. And, this is a grinder head coaching coming in to visit. Sharps were betting Over 42 or less, but direction switched with Under 43.
(Note: Cleveland at +1.5 might get some consideration for basic strategy six-point teasers that would move the line up to +7.5 (crossing both the 3 and the 7). This is a low-totaled game…which appeals to many sharps because points are at a premium. But, Winston is far from a sure thing to thrive at QB given his limited playing time so far. Many sharps will back off because of that.)