How Sharps are Betting Ohio State vs. Notre Dame for College Football’s National Championship
Both Programs Have Big “Public” Betting Constituencies
It’s finally here! Ohio State and Notre Dame play for college football’s national championship Monday night in Atlanta.
Reading the market in a game like this can be a bit tricky because BOTH teams have large public betting constituencies. It’s possible for BIG MONEY to hit the market simply from a rich alumnus. Oddsmakers know which bets to respect more than others. But, they also have to protect their bosses from one-sided exposure.
To this point, support seems balanced enough that it’s not having an undue influence. Floors and ceilings seem tied to sharp sentiment. Let’s see what’s been happening so far…
Opening line of Ohio State -9.5 dropped fairly quickly down to -9 and -8.5. Oddsmakers definitely overshot the mark on what Ohio State backers would lay…just hours after a virtual tie in the final minutes of the Texas game. Dog lovers, other sharps, and Notre Dame fans were expecting a lower opener…and bet +9.5 and +9 fairly aggressively while they were available. It was already clear THEN, that sharps liked Notre Dame +9 or more.
Game sat at OSU -8.5 for more than a week at most spots. Hardly anyone was laying that price with the Buckeyes outside of loyalists. Fans of the team, or recreational bettors that had cashed tickets on OSU against Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas didn’t mind laying something lower than the opener. Notre Dame fans were taking +8.5. Some sharps were nibbling less hard than they had been earlier. Finally, not long ago, many stores dropped to -8.
And, THAT drop brought in Ohio State money from quants and Ohio State fans who were late to the party. Didn’t last long. Game is back to Ohio State -8.5 as I write this. We may have a tug-of-war between now and kickoff between -8 at +8.5 because this will be a HEAVILY bet attraction…and Notre Dame is the kind of dog that can slow down “the public loves betting favorites in big TV games.”