How Sharps are Betting OKC/Indiana in G3 of NBA Championships
Will Thunder End Road Playoff Point Spread Skid?
There’s a sense in many circles that the 2025 NBA Championship series matching the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers is already over. Sure, Indiana pulled off a shocker in G1? Maybe that just meant Thunder in five instead of a sweep.
*Oklahoma City looked dominant for 48 minutes of G2…after being dominant for about 45 minutes of G1. Many pundits have seen enough. Many fans have seen enough. Indiana could pull off one miracle…but won’t be able to pull off four miracles.
*Oklahoma City will be favored by around 10 points in remaining home games. Apparently around 5 points in remaining road games. Even if the market is a bit too optimistic…there’s plenty of wiggle room between those prices and Indiana actually winning the series.
*Oklahoma City is currently -550 at many spots to lift the trophy. That’s the same as 85%. True odds are a smidge lower because the house edge. Not much of a drop from the 88% pre-flop even though Indiana earned a service break.
So, this isn’t being billed as a “pivotal” Game Three, where a tied series “pivots” in one direction based on who wins. It’s being treated as one of a few pit stops on the way to OKC’s inevitable victory parade. And, that’s happening…even though…
*Oklahoma City played awful in a G3 road game at lowly Memphis (not really playoff caliber) before squeaking by late…
*Oklahoma City lost G3 on the road at Denver 113-104 in a similar 1-1 series spot before rallying to advance…
*Oklahoma City was OBLITERATED in G3 at Minnesota 143-101 in its first road trip of that series.
*Oklahoma City hasn’t covered the spread in a single road playoff game this spring…which at least sets up potential for a tight finish Wednesday night.
*Indiana has bounced back GREAT after prior playoff losses…beating Milwaukee 129-103, Cleveland 129-109, and New York 130-121 and 125-108.
Is this a case where the MEDIA and the PUBLIC are thinking one way (OKC or bust!), while SHARPS (professional wagerers) are thinking another? Let’s jump into the market and see how sharps have been betting so far.
Oklahoma City at Indiana (Series tied 1-1)
Opening line of Oklahoma City -4.5 or -5 (depending on the store) settled very quickly at -5. Some shops never even posted -4.5. Those that did took OKC money right away. That at least suggests that “some” smart money laid -4.5 in the opening minutes. The public generally wants to bet affordable favorites, particularly those that win a lot of blowouts! It’s possible that it was only public money lifting -4.5 to -5 at the most exposed early shops. I’m not going to rule out that “some” sharps may have been getting gradings to OKC -4.5.
But, we can safely sat that OKC -5 is NOT sharp. Game sat at OKC -5 for a very long time. We had an extra day between G2 and G3 too! If sharps liked OKC -5, the game would have zipped to -5.5 very quickly. Likely that -6 would have at least been tested if SHARPS were betting the Thunder. That didn’t happen.
There was a temporary rise to OKC -5.5 that felt much more public than sharp for two main reasons.
It didn’t happen right away (sharps bet favorites quickly)
It dropped right back to five because sharp dog lovers POUNDED Indiana +5.5
Things could change on game day. For now, we may have already seen a floor and ceiling.
Some sharps may have liked OKC -4.5. Public definitely did
Sharps were NOT betting OKC 5. Public did
Sharps WERE betting Indiana +5.5