How Sharps are Betting OKC/Indiana in G6 of NBA Championships
Do Wise Guys Think the Series is Already Over?
Unfortunately, line moves so far in early betting for G6 of the 2025 NBA Finals have been tied to the likely health status of Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton. Adds some complexity to the read.
Sharps would likely have one “floor” and “ceiling” if he was going to contribute in any fashion.
Sharps would likely have different boundaries if he were severely limited or OUT of action.
As I write this…his status is termed a game-time decision. There’s no tactical advantage for Indiana to announce anything before tipoff. It may be obvious to observers…and then the Pacers will just announce the thing everyone can already see with their own eyes. For now, we know this…
An early floor of Oklahoma City -4.5 when it was assumed Halliburton would be hobbled but “might” be able to come back and contribute has risen to a long-stable ceiling of -6.5 on the fresher assumption he will either be very hobbled or OUT. Line rose based on a mix of news reports, sharp support for OKC at -5.5 or less, and public support at -6 or less.
Sharps DON’T like OKC -6.5 in this current “information state” as of publication time. If respected money was laying the points, a full 7 would have been tested by now. We might see another tick up to -7 if Halliburton is going to be in street clothes. Probably some sharps who are waiting for confirmation before laying -6.5 with OKC. Public would certainly lay -6.5 if he’s out.
I’m not getting the sense that dog lovers are interested in Indiana (yet) if Halliburton isn’t going to contribute. Pacers have been outclassed on the court since he started limping. No Wise Guys seem to be betting Indiana +6.5 with their fingers crossed.
Indiana +7 “without Halliburton” would probably draw value bets from old-school sharps who use team Power Ratings and are just generally inclined to take the points anyway. Oklahoma City has still only covered ONE road game through the whole 2025 playoffs. And, that took some luck. I don’t expect any sharps to “love” Indiana without Halliburton. Value bets at +7 (or higher) do seem likely.
What could change between now and tipoff?