How Sharps are Betting St. John’s/Arkansas, Purdue/McNeese

Quick Report Focusing on the Two Earliest Saturday Starts

I wanted to do an early report for the two first starts Saturday. You regulars know I’m writing from the other side of the world as my wife and I are helping with caretaking. Personal schedule is busy today because it’s 100 days since the funeral of her father…which is an important milestone for how Buddhists honor those that have passed. Responsibilities today get in the way of writing/sending a sharps report by breakfast time in the US Saturday. (I won’t be back at the computer until mid-evening my time, mid-morning in the US.)

So…we’ll look at the two DAY games right now. Then I’ll be back mid-morning Saturday in the US to cover the other six games, which are all much later starts (5:15 p.m. ET and later). Appreciate your patience. This approach is the best way to do justice for the full schedule.

Purdue vs. McNeese State

Opening line of Purdue -6 sat for a few hours. That told us sharps didn’t like the favorite or the line would have risen right away. Dog lovers took enough of a nibble on McNeese to drop the number to -5.5. Money came right back in on the favorite. Some of that was probably from the public because this is a “name” vs. a “no-name” game…and -5.5 looks pretty cheap to recreational bettors. Some quants may have been involved too. Kenpom made the game six exactly. Sharps don’t follow kenpom blindly…but that approach is a good proxy for quants in general. Every half point matters with single digit spreads. Not much to go on so far…but the borders of Purdue -5.5 and McNeese +6 have drawn enough sharp interest at least for value bets. Early action is suggesting the “right” number is about 5.75. At least in the minds of smart money. “Dumb” money will be one-sided to Purdue (which could turn out to be correct given how poorly lesser programs have fared so far).

Opening total of 143.5 hasn’t budged since going up. That tells us sharps DON’T like the Over. They almost always bet those early to get in before the public. Any sharps thinking about the Under will wait awhile longer to see if public money lifts the number before tipoff. Some old-school guys like playing Unders in the earliest tips because energy might be down early with late-arriving crowds (among other reasons). Kenpom made the game 144. There aren’t yet any indicators for sharp action…or clear reasons why there should be sharp action. Maybe drama will unfold in the morning. If it does…that’s more likely to be a drop because Under bettors finally jumped in while the public was more interested in this team side rather than the total.