How Sharps are Betting the 2025 Super Bowl (so far)
Current Line: Kansas City -1 vs. Philadelphia, Total of 48.5
What might be a historic Sunday is fast approaching. Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting a much-anticipated Super Bowl LIX.
Opening line of Kansas City -1 was bet up very quickly to -1.5…with several stores testing -2. Sharps preferring the favorite wanted to get in right away just in case the public bet Kansas City hard. That was certainly possible…as the Chiefs are going for a three-peat, and are led by a quarterback who strikes hero-worship media as having a magical ability to win close games. Casual fans like betting on favorites anyway. Here was a CHEAP favorite that gets great press…and is even perceived in some circles as having an unfair advantage because the referees make calls in their favor.
If you were a sharp…and your methodology graded the game higher than -1 for the Chiefs, it made sense to bet early.
That said, when several stores started testing KC -2, sharp Philadelphia support jumped in right away. Some methodologies make the Eagles a slight favorite. “Defense wins championships” points that way. Philly has a star running back that’s also been a darling of hero-worship journalism. Throw in revenge from the same Super Bowl matchup of two years ago…there are both mathematical and situational strategies that smile on Philadelphia. Sharps took +2 when they saw it. DOG LOVERS were afraid that +2 would be short-lived because many recreational bettors want to root against Patrick Mahomes. Plus two was gobbled up quickly.
The betting market sank back to Kansas City -1.5…and sat there for several days. Once a line sits for several days like that, you KNOW that sharps DON’T like the favorite at that price or they would have driven it to a new stopping place. And, you can usually be pretty sure that sharps would take the underdog at one tick higher. “Favorite” money from sharps bets early, then stops once it reaches the point where there’s no perceived value. “Underdog” money from sharps will bide it's time unless there’s fear of a feeding frenzy. That happened for that brief stretch at Eagles +2. With the line sitting at 1.5, dog lovers patiently waited to see if +2 might become available again.
Patience ran out Tuesday. Dog lovers looking to bet the Eagles decided +1.5 was likely the best they were going to get. Sports books weren’t keen on making +2 re-available unless the public was betting KC. Much of the public was betting the Eagles! Sharp money finally started hitting Philadelphia hard enough to bring the number back to the opener of KC -1. As I write this, no bounce back up. If anything, there’s now consideration that the line might move more towards Philadelphia.
Who do sharps like? Some like Kansas City -1, but they haven’t yet re-invested since it became an option again. A drop down to pick-em, or a flip to Philly -1 would definitely bring back original investors and possibly bring in new Chiefs money. Many sharps definitely like Philadelphia +2. Others were confidently betting Eagles +1.5 Tuesday and Wednesday because they think Philly should be a slight favorite.