How Sharps are Betting Warriors/Rockets Monday Night (4/28)
Plus: Potential Series Finale in Cavs/Heat
Just two games on the Monday night slate. This will go quickly! Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting the last two G4’s of the first round.
Cleveland at Miami
Opening line of Cleveland -9 sat for awhile before coming down to -8.5. Big adjustment from G3, where the Cavs were only -5. As we talked about in the OKC/Memphis game the other day, recent seasons have seen a tendency for distant trailers to just throw in the towel when there’s no chance of rallying to win a series. This is particularly true in a home game because nobody wants to go play another road game before calling it a season. In past eras, you might see some “let’s win a game so we don’t get swept” fire. Still happens sometimes. Memphis actually played well and covered in that G4. Maybe Miami will as well. But, oddsmakers opened HIGH on the assumed towel tossing. No quants would get a grading like that on the road. Dog lovers notably, didn’t pounce on Miami like +9 was the steal of the century. Just basic value bets that brought the number down a tick. Miami +9 is sharp for value bets. We may not see any sharp money on the favorite unless there’s a surprising development. Public might sit this one out after a busy weekend. Tough to lay points for fun when it may take a double-digit ROAD win to cash the ticket.
Opening to total of 210.5 sat for a good bit before falling to 210. Sharps obviously didn’t want the Over or that would have risen quickly. Even with Cleveland scoring 121-121-124 so far in this series, and off three straight Overs to end Sunday leaguewide. Quants weren’t expecting points…and weren’t worried about getting in early to beat the public. Those interested in the Under decided 210.5 might be the best they were going to get. Sharp value bets on Under 210.5. If there was LOVE for the Under, we’d be at 209 already. Sharps may be sitting this one out for the most part.