Indiana Scores Another Upset, Leads Oklahoma City 2-1 in NBA Finals
Wednesday’s 116-107 Victory Extends “Relative Equality” Theme
We’re at the point now in the 2025 NBA Championship series where “See, I told you so,” will ring out after every game.
When Oklahoma City wins…they were SUPPOSED to win! Prohibitive series favorites. Everyone knew this was going to happen!
When Indiana wins…they’ve been underpriced and disrespected through the whole playoffs…facing a team that’s been consistently overpriced because YAY BLOWOUTS has warped betting lines. Indiana playing championship level basketball this postseason is nothing new!
There’s been a lot more of the former than the latter. Oklahoma is still -240 to win the series despite being down a service break in the series…and despite not having covered a single road point spread through the entire postseason. But, it’s great to see more respect for Indiana starting to develop. Shouldn’t have taken 14 playoff wins.
Current Playoff Records
Indiana 14-5 straight up, 13-6 against the spread
Oklahoma City 13-6 straight up, 8-11 against the spread
Great SU records for both. Indiana wasn’t facing slouches in Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York. Oklahoma City didn’t have to face a #2 or #3 seed. But, the West was loaded and deep…offering a pathway of Memphis, Denver, and Minnesota.
You look at those records, and it’s not clear why OKC is such a huge favorite game by game. Indiana has the better record vs. what was probably a slightly tougher playoff schedule (Memphis wasn’t really playoff caliber). Markets have definitely underrated Indiana in the extreme while overrating OKC.
A look at the number lines for scoring margins provide a hint for OKC’s respect…
Regulation Margins From Worst to Best (median in parenthesis)
IND: -22, -17, -16, -16, -6, 0, 0, 1, 1, (5), 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 17, 19, 20, 26
OKC: -42, -12, -9, -9, -2, -1, 2, 2, 5, (6), 7, 15, 16, 19, 26, 30, 32, 43, 51
In the “typical” game, OKC is only one point better. If you believe medians are the best way to look at results…then these teams aren’t very far apart. But, the AVERAGE game is much different. Because OKC runs up the score in blowouts with an aggressive bench…its average is much higher.
Playoff Averages in Regulation (to keep all results at 48 minutes)
Oklahoma City +9.4
Indiana +2.9
That’s 6.5 points on a neutral court. In the neighborhood of playoff point spreads. Give each team 3 points for home court, then OKC would be -9.5 in home games, -3.5 on the road. I guess we could surmise that betting markets are using averages AND assuming Indiana’s been playing a bit over its heads the past few weeks.
If you prefer medians…then point spreads in this series have been nutso.
What’s the right way to think about handicapping? Personally, I prefer medians to averages…so I’m a bit flummoxed about the consistent lack of respect for Indiana. But, even I’m aware that OKC is two comfortable victories away from moving the medians to (7) and (1). And, THAT would be more in line with series pricing. Market seems to be assuming OKC’s strength will eventually show in a way that will justify the prices. That either will or won’t happen. Thunder fans need for it to happen fast if there’s going to be a parade in the Sooner State.
Let’s crunch the numbers from Indiana’s pivotal G3 victory…
(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey.)