Kansas City “Kinda” Played Philadelphia the Last Two Weeks

Will Super-Chiefs Finally Confront Kryptonite?

A common sports handicapping approach is to review how teams have performed against opponents similar to their upcoming challenge. The tricky thing for evaluating the Kansas City Chiefs outlook in their 2025 Super Bowl showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles a week from Sunday is that few teams are similar to the NFC champs.

*Philadelphia had one of the most productive offenses in the NFL

*Philadelphia also had one of the best defenses in the NFL

Many contenders had one or the other, and tried to do enough with their strength to overcome their weakness. It could be easily argued that Detroit and Baltimore had stretches where they were similar to Philadelphia. But, the Ravens were soft on defense early in the season…and the Lions became soft on defense after injuries late in the season. Kansas City didn’t face either of those in beast mode anyway (beating Baltimore during the Ravens’ more vulnerable early weeks, not drawing Detroit this season).

And, of course, both Baltimore and Detroit self-destructed in the playoffs because of turnovers. Philadelphia’s safe, balanced attack makes that less likely (but not impossible).

We can’t look to Kansas City’s performance against an opponent “similar” to how Philadelphia is playing right now. But, interestingly, the Chiefs are coming off two games where they faced “units” that are similar.

*Kansas City’s offense faced Houston’s defense. Houston and Philadelphia were both strong on that side of the ball. Philadelphia led the NFL with just 4.8 yards allowed per play. Houston was #4 in the league at 5.1 YPP for opponents.

*Kansas City’s defense faced Buffalo’s offense. Buffalo and Philadelphia were both amongst the most productive offenses in the NFL. Buffalo ranked #6 in YPP at 5.9. Philadelphia was #10 at 5.7.

We can build some reasonable expectations out of THAT, can’t we? “Kansas City” hasn’t recently faced a single team truly comparable to Philadelphia. But, the KC offense and defense HAVE faced units that are similar in ability.

*Kansas City’s OFFENSE scored 23 points on 8 possessions in its win over Houston. Two touchdowns (25% TD/Drive rate) and three field goals. Not a lot of yardage. Only 212 yards gained. But, Patrick Mahomes knows how to turn yardage into points. Even against a stout defense, just under three points per possession vs. a top defense.

*Kansas City’s DEFENSE allowed 29 points on 9 possessions in its win over Buffalo. Four TDs and a field goal allowed (Buffalo failed on a pair of two-point conversion tries after TDs).

We can’t just simply call that a 29-23 win for KC’s projected opponent. The defense had to be on the field for nine possessions vs. Buffalo, the offense only got eight cracks at Houston. Per possession, that’s “opponent” winning 3.22 to 2.87. In a 10-possession game, that’s 32 to 29 for “Proxy Philadelphia.” Most playoff games are coming in below that. Let’s call it nine possessions per team. That’s a win of 29-26 for KC’s opponent.

The world is much more complicated than this. I’m not going to call that a “projection” for the final score. But, it is relevant information regarding what KC’s offense is likely to do against a top defense…and how KC’s defense might be vulnerable to another top offense.

Also worth remembering…

*Both of those games in the sample were HOME games for Kansas City…and the Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field. KC’s offense and defense might be a smidge worse in less friendly conditions.

*We’ve seen in the playoffs that turnover implosions can dramatically impact the final scoreboard. The OFFENSES of Kansas City and Philadelphia have been safe with the ball. Chiefs have only one TO in their two playoff games. Eagles haven’t lost the ball a single time vs. Green Bay, the LA Rams, and Washington. But, the DEFENSE of Philadelphia has done a much better job of forcing TOs. Kansas City’s “keep things in front of you” approach didn’t earn a single takeaway from Houston or Buffalo. Philadelphia’s more aggressive style…and the advantages of playing with a lead, led to 4-2-4 turnovers committed by the Packers, Rams and Commanders (in that order).

We can at least see the potential that Philadelphia will be the Kryptonite that neutralizes Patrick Mahomes in his red cape. Kansas City’s strategic “position-position-position” approach to getting leads and daring lesser opponents to drive the field may hit a brick wall.

*Philadelphia could reasonably find the end zone as often as Buffalo did.

*Kansas City may have trouble finding the end zone as often against an elite defense that also has a knack for exploiting turnovers in high-pressure situations.

Andy Reid and company have two weeks to come up with a chess strategy to deal with this dynamic challenge. Picking a winner comes down to these basic questions. Can the Chiefs keep squeezing out edges in a potential shootout against a stiff defensive challenge? Are the Eagles ready to embrace their moment?

What we’ve discussed today, at least in terms of skill sets, may be weighing on the minds of professional bettors. I’m not saying they used this approach. But, sharps bet based on skill sets…and KC’s performances the past two weeks against comparable “units” do shed light on skill sets. I expect “smart money” to eventually step in on Philadelphia as an underdog.

As I write this, Kansas City is a -1.5 point favorite. Sharps aren’t backing the Chiefs with major confidence or that line would be -2 or more by now. We can assume that interest in the dog is “waiting” to see if +2 or more becomes available. Should public action on favored KC lift the line to two…sharps would probably take that with the Eagles very quickly. They might decide +1.5 is the best they’re going to get.

Is the wrong team favored? Or, will Reid and Mahomes “figure out a way to win” against their toughest, most balanced opponent of the season? You have a week and a half to solve those riddles. If you think you’ve solved them already, Philadelphia +1.5 is available right now. Kansas City -1 (or even pick-em) might be on the board between now and kickoff (or, if you don’t think the line will move toward Philly, you can lay -125 right now on KC to win the game straight up).

We’ll talk more about the Super Bowl next week. Wanted to get this in your hands now in case you’re thinking of betting early. Kansas City hasn’t played an opponent truly similar to how the Eagles are playing “right now.” But, the offense recently did…and the defense recently did…which is kinda the same thing.