Key Stats From Tuesday’s High-Profile College Hoop Tournaments

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s Combine For 1/31 on Treys!!! Minor Upsets in Majors

Wanted to put together some quick stat reports from major conference tournaments for you. This will go out free to everyone…with a quick reminder that if you sign up for a month NOW for just $20, that will take you through the full NCAA Tournament that ends about a week into April. You get….

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(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey. Numbers at .85 or better are good, at .75 or worse are not.)

*Gonzaga (-3.5) beat St. Mary’s 58-51

What happened with Treys?

Gonzaga 1/15 (7%), St. Mary’s 0/16 (0%)

Can’t recall ever seeing something like this in a single game matching two GOOD teams. Bad teams usually shoot better than that! Yes, it’s a bit fluky. But…you can’t really be taken seriously as much of a Dance threat if you’re capable of shooting that badly in such an important game against a quality opponent. If it was nerves…you shouldn’t be that nervous by now. If the backdrop was weird, you should have adjusted. If you kept running out the shot clock on yourself before forcing up bad shots…you should have executed more quickly. Can’t imagine Auburn, Florida, or Alabama doing something like that even on their worst days.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Gonzaga .90, St. Mary’s .82

Gonzaga won turnovers 18-4. St. Mary’s won two-point shooting 56-52%, free throws 11/15 to 5/7, and rebounds 43-28. Gaels somehow managed to lose the ball 18 times in a very slow 62-possession game AND go 0/16 on treys when playing a style in their own comfort zone. Still only lost by five! Hustle was there on the boards. Gonzaga protected the ball, but didn’t do a good job of drawing fouls. Both teams are obviously better than this. But, their “floors” weren’t supposed to be this low in a Super-League type matchup. This was a conference championship game for goodness sake. Gonzaga ranks #9 nationally in Kenpom as I write this…St. Mary’s #22. Neither looked top 50 here. Or, well, top 100.

ACC TOURNAMENT

*Duke (+4) upset Pittsburgh 55-54

What happened with Treys?

Notre Dame 4/20 (20%), Pittsburgh 4/22 (18%)

People were laughing at the ACC’s awful shooting day until that Gonzaga/St. Mary’s game was played later in the slate was even worse. Very poor long-range shooting in this one.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Notre Dame .72, Pittsburgh .70

Notre Dame won two-point shooting 52-47%, free throws 9/10 to 8/9, and rebounds 37-31. Pitt won TOs 17-11. Another team playing a slow game in its comfort zone that committed way too many TOs while shooting badly from long range. Irish won anyway because Pitt was worse. Poorly played game all around. Notre Dame will be an underdog to #5 seed North Carolina Wednesday afternoon.

*California (-4.5) beat Virginia Tech 82-73 in double OT (60)

What happened with Treys?

California 5/26 (19%), Virginia Tech 3/25 (12%)

Again, atrocious. Final score helped hide how ugly this game was because points were finally scored in all the extra time. That 60-60 regulation tie stayed Under the market total by 20 points. Cal did end up making a couple extra treys…and that mattered.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: California .88, Virginia Tech .82

Cal won rebounds 46-41 and turnovers 18-11. Tech won two-point shooting 64-44%, which almost made up for its other issues. Cal advances to a meeting with local rival Stanford, which will surely draw a big crowd in Charlotte. A NoCal team will definitely be in the final eight.

*Syracuse (+3.5) upset Florida State 66-62

What happened with Treys?

Florida State 2/10 (20%), Syracuse 2/14 (14%)

At least these two teams realized “if you can’t make ‘em, don’t shoot ‘em.” Not a relevant stat in this particular game. Syracuse wasn’t hurt by those four extra misses.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Syracuse .92, Florida State .86

Syracuse won two-point shooting 53-45% and rebounds 42-32. Florida State won free throws 18/27 to 12/22 and turnovers 11-10. All three games in Charlotte Tuesday were compelling in terms of drama. But, the lack of execution was staggering for a major conference in games that were supposed to matter a lot. Reports of the ACC’s demise have not been exaggerated. The back end of a big-time league isn’t supposed to play this poorly. Syracuse advances to face SMU Wednesday night.

Big 12 Tournament

*Cincinnati (-6.5) beat Oklahoma State 87-68

What happened with Treys?

Oklahoma State 8/18 (44%), Cincinnati 6/23 (26%)

Looks like Okie State didn’t force treys it couldn’t make…and then never shifted into desperation mode even after falling behind. (Or, you’ll see in a moment that Okie State committed so many TOs that it cut down on the number of treys it could launch!)

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Cincinnati .97, Oklahoma State .64

Cincinnati won two-point shooting 59-45%, free throws 15/20 to 10/19, rebounds 40-36, and turnovers 24-16. That’s TWENTY-FOUR turnovers for Oklahoma State! Cincinnati was the much classier side except for launching a few too many treys in a game where that didn’t matter anyway. Even though, this was a #12 seed facing a #13, the market was correct to make the #12 a big neutral court favorite. Cincinnati advances to play Iowa State Wednesday.

*Colorado (+3) upset TCU 69-67

What happened with Treys?

Colorado 9/22 (41%), TCU 7/22 (32%)

Good performance from the #16 seed in a major seed upset of a #9 (even if markets saw them more closely matched than that).

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: TCU .77, Colorado .72

Colorado won two-point shooting 41-40% and free throws 18/24 to 10/20. TCU won rebounding 45-34 and turnovers 15-14. TCU didn’t shoot well from anywhere (even the FT line), but grabbed enough rebounds to keep it interesting. Tough to like the Buffs moving forward given poor rebounding and TO sloppiness. They needed those two extra treys to cover other weaknesses. Colorado is a dog to West Virginia Wednesday.

*Kansas State (-6) only beat Arizona State 71-66

What happened with Treys?

Kansas State 8/18 (44%), Arizona State 7/26 (27%)

Sharpness ended up mattering even though it was only one extra make. State didn’t launch many wasted shots. Looks like ASU had some desperation in its numbers while trailing. Those extra misses were a drain on offensive potential.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Kansas State .81, Arizona State .76

Kansas State won two-point shooting 53-47% and rebounds 36-35. ASU won free throws 13/19 to 9/12 and turnovers 13-10. Game landed close to market. Still a bit disappointing to me that a #10 seed that had been getting good press not too long ago could only sneak by the #15 seed in a 16-team league. Wildcats will play Baylor Wednesday.

*Central Florida (+2.5) upset Utah 87-72

What happened with Treys?

Central Florida 10/24 (42%), Utah 4/26 (15%)

Big edge for the dog. That’s plus 18 points in game UCF only won by 15. Nice to see SOMEBODY make double digit treys at a nice percentage. Utah goes in the dumpster with all the other poor three-point shooting teams.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: Central Florida .92, Utah .88

Central Florida won two-point shooting 66-55% and free throws 19/26 to 14/23. Utah won rebounds 40-35 and turnovers 14-11. Terrific shooting day overall from UCF. Not the end of the world to lose rebounds and TOs when so much of the second half was garbage time. UCF plays erratic Kansas Wednesday night.

I’ll do one more smaller conference championship game because a this result got a lot of attention…

*St. Francis (+11.5) shocked Central Connecticut 46-43

What happened with Treys?

St. Francis 5/26 (19%), C-Conn 3/17 (18%)

This was on C-Conn’s home floor…so the players can’t complain about the shooting backdrop.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: C-Conn .54, St. Francis .51 (ugly!)

St. Francis won two-point shooting 41-36% and turnovers 16-10. Central Connecticut won free throws 6/8 to 3/7 and rebounds 44-39. Man, this was something. Even with this victory, St. Francis is still outside the top 300 in Kenpom’s rankings. Extremely likely to be the worst team in the Dance. Not getting to the FT line kills your Trey-less efficiency potential. Neither offense was adept at drawing fouls. Refs probably swallowed their whistles some. Really shouldn’t have been an issue with a home favorite #1 seed laying almost a dozen points to a bunch of nice kids who scored non-conference wins over Penn State-Shenango, Penn State-Schuylkill, and Franciscan.

That’s enough for Tuesday recaps. I’ll do my best to put together little capsules like this for Wednesday’s action in the Big East, Big 12, Big 10, and ACC. Regular subscribers are certain to get recaps from the four SEC games…along with sharps reports and other preview material through that full tournament.

Thanks for reading. I’ll see you regular subscribers again soon. If you’d like to become a subscriber, THIS is the perfect time. A calendar month for $20 takes you through all of March Madness. A calendar year for $75 lasts well clear of the entire college and pro football seasons and into early March of 2026.