Lakers With Luka G1: Los Angeles (-12) Beats Utah 132-113

Doncic Scores 14 Points in 24 Minutes (1/7 on Treys) in Lakers’ Laugher

Today, we begin a new series of articles that will follow the “Luka Doncic/LA Lakers” story from a market and key stat perspective. We’ll try to pin down how the composite brainpower of betting markets is evaluating the team with its new roster. We’ll try to evaluate if championship potential really has increased since the blockbuster deal that STILL has sports media reeling. And, we’ll look for stat indicators that might anticipate rises or falls on the performance curve because Doncic is either a GREAT fit, or not as good a fit as many were expecting.

Luka’s Lakers debut came Monday night at home against unimpressive visitor Utah. Let’s start with a look at how sharps were betting the game.

Sharps Report: Utah at the LA Lakers

Opening line of the Lakers -13.5 proved to be way too high for sharps. Oddsmakers apparently overestimated sharp and public interest in betting the Lakers as this new era began. Dog lovers and other sharps immediately bet the game down to -13 and -12.5. Nobody waited to see if +14 might become available. The public doesn’t bet early…doesn’t bet ugly underdogs…and isn’t gong to fade Luka and LeBron on “Opening Night.” That drop must have been caused by sharp money.

There was a bounce off -12.5 back up to -13.5…then a fall back down…then another bounce up. That was either sharps arguing with their money, or a tug-of-war between sharps and the public. Felt at the time like sharps arguing. But, as we got close to tip off, the line fell through 12.5 to a new floor of Lakers -12. Dog lovers were getting the last word in a way that seemed to overwhelm whatever interest there had been on the Lakers -12.5 or even -13. Money that mattered most was taking Utah +12.5 during the time “the public” was supposed to be laying the points!

So, a meaningful preponderance of sharps liked Utah at +12.5 or more, with some REALLY liking Utah +13 and +13.5.

Opening total of 233.5 climbed the ladder to 236.5. Definitely some quants on the Over initially. It’s no secret that the addition of Luka will probably help offense and hurt defense. This was likely to be a shootout anyway. Lakers just played to 241 Saturday vs. Indiana Saturday with Luka (and LeBron) in street clothes. Utah played to 240 later that night at the LA Clippers…surging over a market price of 224.5.

Time spent at the ceiling of 236.5 was short-lived. Some sharps believed there had been an overadjustment. Total would walk back down the ladder to 236, 235.5, and 235. So, we had a floor of 233.5, and a ceiling of 236.5, with a midpoint of 235. Granting some messiness in the middle, sharps liked Over 234.5 or less, but Under 235.5 or more.