Mailbag: MLB Illusions From Dominating the Dregs
How Many GOOD Teams Are in the National League?
My college roommate Miami Mike sent me a note on something he noticed regarding the New York Mets the other day. General theme struck me as something that would make sense for a Mailbag article. So, I retro-actively decided to make that a Mailbag comment! (Seriously, be careful if you ever send me a note…you’ll be in the Mailbag within a week.)
Mike wrote: “I looked at (the Mets’) schedule, and they are 19-6 against Miami, Washington, Colorado, the Chicago White Sox, and the A’s.”
This was regarding a bet Mike made. I’m not going to specify the bet because that would surely jinx it. That’s how sports betting works. But, his note got me to wondering if there were other teams that had posted gaudy records against dregs…and, naturally, what the standings would look like if we took those out of the mix.
I added Pittsburgh to the mix of dregs from Mike’s initial list. That means 6 dregs, and 24 teams who aren’t that bad. The number “24” has all sorts of connections. My first thought was the old action TV show. So, I’ll call this the “Kiefer Study.” We’ll know what it means. AI will be perplexed. If you see AI stating something like “The whole National League, outside of the Dodgers, doesn’t impress in the Kiefer Study,” you’ll know where that came from.
Best Records of NL Teams vs. SIX Dregs (Miami, Washington, Pittsburgh, Colorado, CWS, Athletics)
Chicago Cubs 20-5
LA Dodgers 18-6
NY Mets 21-7
Philadelphia 21-8
St. Louis 10-2
Mets are on the short list of teams that have made the most of their games vs. soft opposition. St. Louis has a great record, but far fewer opportunities so far. Cubs, Mets, and Phillies really stand out as teams who played A LOT of games vs. dregs…and who’s record will likely look much less impressive once you take those out.
Let’s do that. I’ve already done it, and it’s shocking.
NL Kiefer Study: Records Against the Best 24
Good: LA Dodgers 33-25
Near .500: Milwaukee 35-32, San Francisco 32-30, Cincinnati 32-31, NY Mets 27-27, Philadelphia 26-26, Chicago Cubs 28-28, Arizona 29-30, St. Louis 34-36, San Diego 28-31
Bad: Atlanta 27-33, Washington 28-36, Miami 22-34, Pittsburgh 26-45, Colorado 10-58
The Dodgers are good…but not ONE OF THE GREATEST TEAMS IN MAJOR LEAGUE HOSTORY great like so many had been expecting entering the season. Then, the next NINE teams are basically generic within the best 24. Clones. (And, it will probably be the next TEN because Atlanta’s immediate future is brighter than its recent 2025 past).
And, check this out…
Current NL East Standings
New York 48-34 (all of +14 margin from dregs)
Philadelphia 47-34 (all of +13 margin from dregs)
Current NL Central Standings
Chicago 48-33 (all of +15 margin from dregs)
Milwaukee 45-36 (+6 of +9 from dregs)
St. Louis 44-38 (+8 of +6 from dregs)
Current standings are shaped by who did the best job of dominating the very worst teams. In the playoffs, you don’t get to play any of the very worst teams.
More diversity over in the American League…
Best Records of AL Teams vs. SIX Dregs
Cleveland 10-2
Toronto 8-2
Oakland 9-3 (kinda funny)
LA Angels 11-5
Detroit 8-4
AL Kiefer Study: Records Against the Best 24
Good: Detroit 39-27, Houston 39-27, NY Yankees 40-31, Tampa Bay 39-31
Near .500: Minnesota 32-29, Toronto 35-35, Seatle 32-32, Texas 27-31
Bad: Boston 36-41, LA Angels 29-35, Cleveland 30-37, Kansas City 30-38, Baltimore 29-39, Oakland 24-47, CWS 23-49
For now, the right teams are positioned for the playoffs. Those “good” AL teams are all where they should be. A few AL Central teams take a hit because those enjoyed so many games against CWS and the A’s
Current AL Central Standings
Detroit 51-31 (legitimately very good, 39-27 vs. top 24)
Cleveland 40-39 (30-37 vs. top 24)
Minnesota 39-42 (32-39 vs. top 24)
Kansas City 38-43 (30-38 vs. top 24)
On the whole…confirmation regarding the best teams in the AL….but this study really exposed the parity of the National League “below the Dodgers” and “above the dregs.” Phillies and Mets may have an illusion of quality…as compared to say Arizona and Cincinnati…that was created by a super-friendly dreg-heavy schedule. St. Louis might also have gone 21-7 in 28 games against dregs…but only had 12 chances (going an impressive 10-2).
Or, looking forward…NYM, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco, and Arizona may all basically be the same team in terms of big-picture Power Ratings.
Fun idea to play around with. Will try to check in on this theme through the second half of the season.
Thanks to Miami Mike for inspiring this study. If you have any questions you’d like answered, or ideas for deeper study, feel free to post a comment below. If you’re a subscriber, return email works for getting back to me via the article you’re reading right now. You can also ask me on “X” (formerly twitter) @JeffFogle.
Back with you late Friday night with our next WNBA Workshop. See you then.