Mailbag: What is an Expert?

Does the Term Even Mean Anything in Sports Betting Media?

We haven’t done a Mailbag in awhile. Hope everyone reading this feels free to ask any questions they’d like to have answered regarding sports betting in general or sports betting media more specifically. Anyone can post a question in the comment section below. If you don’t want to be public about it, subscribers can ask me via return email on any article sent to you.

My Friend “Coast to Coast” (@C2CHoops on X, formerly twitter) sent me this question via DM recently. Thought it would be a good topic for a “Mailbag” discussion. It was a lengthy post. C2C’s thoughts appear below in italics. I put a few words in bold for emphasis. Then I’ll respond at the end.

“What does "expert" mean?

The internet age has given us supposed expertise in many areas -- in things I'm interested, like gardening, market trading and cooking for example, there are all kinds of advice given. Some of it is great, some good and some not so good. But in these areas, you tube videos, instagrams, tweets, etc., it's the people themselves claiming some kind of expertise that they may or may not have.

Sports betting has a bunch of these so-called “experts” doing podcasts, YouTube videos, tweets, etc. The problem is, in sports betting, networks give these self-proclaimed "experts" air time and credibility. Don't see many food network or CNBC shows with Joes from Kokomo giving their advice. In sports betting media, these kinds of random self-proclaimed experts are ordained as "experts."

Look at the VSIN picks page...picks from "experts"....most of whom you have never heard of, have no demonstrated competence or long term track record, etc. Essentially, these guys are little different from the random videos of guys who call themselves experts. Except that a network is calling them EXPERTS, giving them some kind of credibility.

So sports betting media are hurting their own credibility by giving so much attention to Joes from Kokomo. (Yes VSIN does have a few true experts for specific sports, but even then, VSIN proclaims they have expertise on many sports, which usually isn't the case). The word "NETWORK" has multiple meanings. As an old Journalist, if someone works for a network it implies that the network has vetted the person before employment. Sports betting media and networks don't seem to follow that hiring protocol. They’re putting people on the air with no demonstrated long-term expertise.

That means sports betting networks are more of an extension of social media -- unvetted personal opinions-- rather than true networks that have people with demonstrated expertise.

Big-time investors that appear on CNBC are very different from the Joes from Kokomo working for ESPN Bet, VSIN, and other so-called betting "networks". (I will note that there are exceptions of course, but the Joes hosting and guesting on shows far outnumber the Pros on VSIN, ESPN ,etc…). And as time goes on, the number of Joes hosting or guesting on VSIN shows seem to be increasing. I guess that's a positive if VSIN's goal is to be a social media site with personal opinions from random Joes from Kokomo. It's definitely NOT a positive if their goal is to be "the sports betting network."

So much to agree with there that I don’t have much to add. It’s almost as if the word “expert” now means “somebody who’s bluffing being an expert.” ACTUAL EXPERTS usually don’t call themselves that. Let they let their work speak for itself. It’s marketing entities trying to PROMOTE their contributors or guests that use the term these days. Always be wary of marketing entities trying to promote things.

I wish the word would go away. I also wish the term “professional bettor” would go away when it’s applied to a guest in a studio. So few ACTUAL people make their living that way. I use the term daily myself in “sharps reports when referring to the ACTUAL people who are influencing the line. Industry term for that is “sharps” because they literally sharpen the opening lines posted by oddsmakers.

There ARE oddsmakers

There ARE sharps

Are there experts? Many of those so-labelled will go around 50-52% with their picks over the next 1,000 selections. They’re “experts” because they know a lot of team names, player names, stadium names, stats, and trivia. When I was a kid, you were an expert if you knew the three rivers that met at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh (which made me a kid expert). Now, there’s so much jargon and trivia that anyone can “sound” like an expert while trying to brand themselves.

Best way to deal with this messy reality as a consumer…

• *Assume NOBODY is an expert, until they prove something to you that isn’t just knowing names, jargon, and trivia.

• *Pay attention to the handful of people who have impressed you with real knowledge about how games are won and lost (not with names, jargon, and trivia).

• *Listen to oddsmakers, the best of which almost never pretend to be experts on anything beyond the exact job that they’re doing. The further they drift from the actual business of running a sports books, the less you should listen.

• *Learn to read the actions of experts (like line movements that reflect sharp betting), because many won’t actually explain the most important stuff to protect their livelihoods. Real-world sharps talk with their money. Real-world experts DO STUFF that confirms their expertise. They don’t just jibber-jabber.

• *Remember that ancient parable about the group of blind men trying to figure out what an elephant is when each can only touch a certain part of the body (variations in Hindu and Buddhist texts). Successful sports betting is that elephant. Most people talking about sports betting (on the air, or in bars) are those blind men. Even an expert on tusks isn’t an expert on elephants. (Male overconfidence, arrogance, and love of arguing from an undeserved expert position goes back so many centuries that somebody had to create a parable about it.)

We’re living in an era where people or companies have to brand themselves. Branding yourself often means bluffing a level of expertise or likely accomplishment that isn’t there. Sports betting media is run by companies and people who are branding themselves. At least, in YOUR life, be picky about how YOU use the term.

Thanks very much to Coast-to-Coast for sharing his thoughts on the current state of sports betting media. Maybe if other readers want to share their thoughts (even if those thoughts aren’t questions), I can put those together in a Mailbag post.

Thanks for reading. Next report will be a stat recap late Thursday night from Game 6 of the Oklahoma City/Denver series. I’ll see all of you subscribers then.