Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
MLB Workshop: Underdog Qualifiers as Season Resumes (7/18)

MLB Workshop: Underdog Qualifiers as Season Resumes (7/18)

Here are the 21 Teams We’ll Consider as +110 or Better Dogs

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Jeff Fogle
Jul 18, 2025
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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
MLB Workshop: Underdog Qualifiers as Season Resumes (7/18)
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Baseball is back after an eventful few days. I mentioned just before the break that I was going to start the math over when play resumed. What we had been studying was close to break-even anyway. And, we wanted to add in using underdogs at +1.5 runs on the money line to see if we learned anything from such expansion.

To see if there’s “air” in the market in terms of how the non-dregs are currently rated, we’ll focus on the top 21 teams when getting at least +110 on the money line…and at the corresponding run line in those games.

We’re EXCLUDING:

  • The Chicago White Sox, expected to be a dreg…have been a dreg…and are 9-21 its last 30 games

  • Cleveland, has slumped lately to a 12-18 mark its last 30 games

  • Kansas City has slumped lately to a 13-17 mark its last 30 games, with some of those wins over dreg Pittsburgh

  • Minnesota has slumped lately to a 12-18 mark its last 30 games

  • The Athletics, expected to be a dreg, and still have a bad record

  • Washington, expected to be a dreg…has been a dreg…and is 8-22 its last 30 games

  • Atlanta, stunningly became a dreg…and is 7-13 its last 20 games

  • Pittsburgh, became a dreg…bounced back…but then slumped back to 12-18 its last 30 games

  • Colorado, expected to be a dreg, turned out to be even worse, and is 5-15 its last 20 games

That leaves 21 teams. I’ll keep my eye on the Athletics. A decent 15-15 mark the last 30 games…which is great for a team that’s usually an underdog. May be worth including in the study if that continues. You never know with non-contenders. Some close okay…some close horribly. We might have to eventually take the A’s off the dreg list.

I’ll also keep my eye on the Mets. Just 12-18 their last 30 games…with many fans suggesting the end of the world is at hand. A bit early…but we might have to put the Mets on the dreg list. Sometimes “first half” contenders fall apart before changes are made.

Under consideration from this weekend’s schedule…using rotation order at Don Best for Friday’s games…

  • Any dog of +110+ in the Boston/Cubs series

  • San Diego, if ever a dog of +110 at Washington

  • Any dog of +110+ in LA Angels/Philadelphia

  • Any dog of +110+ in San Francisco/Toronto

  • Any dog of +110+ in Cincinnati/NY Mets

  • Miami, if ever a dog of +110+ vs. Kansas City

  • NY Yankees, if ever a dog of +110+ at Atlanta

  • Any dog of +110+ in Baltimore/Tampa /Bay

  • Any dog of +110+ in Detroit/Texas

  • Any dog of +110+ in St. Louis/Arizona

  • Any dog of +110+ in Milwaukee/LA Dodgers

  • Any dog of +110+ in Houston/Seattle

If you’re new to this writing project, I want to emphasize that these are not SUGGESTED BETS! We’re tinkering around with an idea in a workshop to see if baseball markets might have a little inflation to them the way NBA and WNBA markets have in recent studies…and, arguably, the way all sports betting markets probably HAVE had through the years. How else could old-school dog lovers have sustained careers unless there was enough oxygen to breathe?

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