NFL Coaches Often Fired After Bad Point Spread Performances
Market Prices Define “Expectations”
When sports betting media started about 5-6 years ago, I was thinking to myself, “Great, now there will finally be some mainstream recognition that head coaches with bad point spread records get fired.”
I know that’s not a big thing. I think many of us had dozens of expectations back then. Most along the lines of “FINALLY, somebody will protect customers from all the predators trying to eat people!” Instead, media companies started partnering with the predators that were trying to eat people. “Thrilled to partner with” in the press releases. Yada-yada-yada.
In terms of CONTENT, I thought it would be a good thing for everyone to notice the relationship between records against the spread and job security. Hasn’t really happened much. I’m not saying that it’s the “job” of coaches to cover spreads. They’re focused on much more important things. But…
*Point spreads literally define expectations on a game-by-game basis
*Coaches whose teams don’t meet expectations get fired
Here’s a look at the worst teams against the spread in the NFL this past regular season…and if/when their head coach was fired.
2023-24 Point Spread Records
Atlanta 5-12 (fired Jan. 7)
Carolina 4-11-2 (fired Nov. 27)
LA Chargers 5-11-1 (fired Dec. 15)
New England 6-11 (coach leaves w/permission today)
Washington 6-10-1 (fired Jan. 8)
NY Jets 6-10-1 (not fired, but on a hot seat)
Denver 6-10-1 (only there 1 season so far)
New Orleans 6-10-1 (only there 2 seasons, closed strong)
That’s the full list of teams at 6-10-1 ATS or worse. I didn’t cherry-pick teams that fired their coaches. The four worst records either fired their coach, or stepped aside when it was mutually agreed he should leave. Of the teams at 6-10-1, the Jets arguably “should” fire their coach, the Saints might have if not for a 4-1 straight up and ATS finish with a guy they still have hopes for. Saints were 2-9-1 ATS before that finish! Denver’s not going to fire a successful long time veteran after just one season. His leash is longer than that.
Of course, this correlation is true in ALL sports, not just pro football. (But, if I put NFL in the headline more people will find this article!). Crappy ATS records usually mean somebody’s going to get fired. Not because the bosses or fans bet. But, because point spreads are a fantastic yardstick for expectations. You don’t get to keep your job if you’re not performing to expectations.
If sports betting media was a real thing…or if there was a truly meaningful convergence/acceptance of point spread stuff on the mainstream sports channels…this stuff would be going hand in hand already.
“After going just 5-12 against expectations, the Atlanta Falcons fired their head coach today…”
“After going 6-11 against expectations this past season, 13-20-1 the past two seasons, one-time point spread juggernaut Bill Belichick has decided to part ways with the New England Patriots…”
*After a disinterested 24-7 loss to Denver as a 3-point favorite, and a poor 4-8 start against expectations, Los Angeles Chargers ownership were convinced their head coach had lost the team.”
Point spread results provide the perfect framework for measuring performance against expectations. You can talk about them without suggesting corruption against the “purity” of any sport. Aren’t they actually THE PERFECT WAY to frame what’s happening when most head coaches get fired?!
Something to think about with so much jibber-jabber about NFL head coaches on the airwaves today. Back with you Friday afternoon to study how sharps have been betting Wildcard Weekend in the NFL Playoffs. That report will be for paid subscribers. If you’re not currently a subscriber…
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