NFL: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings Entering 2024 Season

Week One Point Spreads Have Settled, We Can Build Our Scale!

Week One lines for the regular season have had a chance to settle. Sharps did any fine-tuning that was needed to oddsmakers openers. Using current lines at Draftkings, and adjusting 2 points for home field advantage (1.5 points for lines sitting on a half point), here’s a quick estimate of how “the market” is currently Power Rating all 32 teams.

2024: NFL Estimated “Market” Power Ratings

86: San Francisco

85: Kansas City

84: Baltimore

83: Detroit

82: Buffalo, NY Jets (Rodgers back), Cincinnati, Dallas, Philadelphia

81: Miami, Houston, Green Bay, LA Rams

80: Cleveland

79: Jacksonville, Atlanta, Seattle

78: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, LA Chargers, Chicago, Tampa Bay

77: Minnesota, New Orleans, Arizona

76: Las Vegas, Denver, NY Giants, Washington

75: New England, Tennessee

74: Carolina

I also paid attention to win total projections when putting those together. If you’re going to make your own adjustments…remember to change BOTH teams in the Week One couplet. If you think Buffalo is too low and want to raise the Bills, you also have to raise Arizona. Buffalo is currently -7 in that game, which would be 5 points higher on a neutral field. Buffalo has to be FIVE rungs higher on that scale. I went with 82 and 77 because I wasn’t comfortable sticking Arizona at 78, or dropping Buffalo to 81 (not yet, anyway).

Might play around more with those this summer if time permits. Still a long way from the start of the regular season. But, since Week One point spreads have been up for awhile now, thought it would be fun to throw together a tentative set of ratings.

Thanks for reading. See you again soon.