OKC Closes on 12-1 Run to Even NBA Finals with Indiana
And the Thunder FINALLY Covered a Road Playoff Game…by a Point!
For much of the second half, it looked like the Indiana Pacers might surge to a shocking 3-1 series lead against heavily favored Oklahoma City in the 2025 NBA Finals. Thunder continued to attack. Pacers puckered under pressure. A 31-17 fourth quarter keyed by a 12-1 finish has tied things back up at two wins apiece.
“Tied” is technically the right word. But, OKC will be a clear favorite in every remaining game. Better put…OKC broke serve back to make up for an earlier home loss, and is now once again a prohibitive championship favorite.
Let’s crunch the numbers from G4…
(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey.)
*Oklahoma City (-6) won at Indiana 111-104
What happened with Treys?
Indiana 11/36 (31%), Oklahoma City 3/17 (18%)
Wow…big edge for Indiana that didn’t pay off with a win. Though, plus 24 points on makes is a big deal…the Pacers also had 25 misses to just 14 for the Thunder. So, the percentages are a bit misleading because OKC chose to go with an aggressive “attack the basket” approach that led to a lot of free throws and 11 more two-point makes. And, as Dean Oliver pointed out on twitter…Indiana was 0/8 on treys in the fourth quarter. That means a solid 11/28 in the first three, 39%. Different winner if the Pacers go 3/8 on treys in the final stanza rather than 0/8.
What happened with everything else?
Trey-Less Efficiency: Oklahoma City 1.08, Indiana .82
OKC won two-point shooting 56-52%, free throws 34/38 to 25/33, rebounds 43-33, and turnovers 15-13. A clean sweep inside the arc…though it still took that 12-1 closing salvo to lock away the win. Attacking the basket works GREAT when officials will blow their whistles. Given team styles, OKC should almost always win the free throw stat head to head. Today, it helped create a 102-71 edge in points scored on 1’s and 2’s. Which, in turn…led to…
Trey-less Efficiency
G1: Oklahoma City .85, Indiana .68
G2: Oklahoma City .97, Indiana .78
G3: Indiana .98, Oklahoma City .85
G4: Oklahoma City 1.02, Indiana .82
Looks like G3 was the anomaly for Indiana…which means it will have to win treys two more times while also doing a better job of inside defense if it wants to throw a parade. Thunder are better and the fundamentals. (May have to start calling stats that signal smart play “Thunder-mentals,” this is a super-smart franchise.)
The combination of Indiana’s missed treys and a TO loss created another win for OKC in our “Maravich Botch” category. Second-biggest advantage of the four games played so far. It’s been a clean sweep because OKC has reacted well to the dynamics of this series. Why risk a “virtual turnover” on a missed trey if it’s much easier to score inside?
Maravich Botches (.75 times the number of missed Treys…PLUS the number of turnovers…lower is better because you want to AVOID these)
G1: Oklahoma City 20.25, Indiana 39.75
G2: Oklahoma City 29.5, Indiana 34.5
G3: Oklahoma City 25, Indiana 26.5
G4: Oklahoma City 23.5, Indiana 33.75
Indiana had been showing well in this stat through the Eastern brackets. Clearly the inferior side in this particular combo. OKC’s just not going to have any 10 of 40 performances like we saw in earlier action.