OKC Closes Strong Again, Now Leads Indiana 3-2 in NBA Finals
Hobbled Halliburton Makes ZERO Baskets it 34 Minutes
It took an injury to Indiana Pacers’ start Tyrese Halliburton to get this series where betting markets had initially expected them to be. Team hasn’t been able to sustain a full 48 minutes of production since he started limping.
Halliburton’s Treys
G1: 2 of 7
G2: 3 of 8
G3: 4 of 8
G4: 1 of 7
G5: 0 of 4
That’s 1 of 11 the last two games. You can see the recent lack of lift in those stats. He hasn’t been dead weight because he’s capable of many things. But, the difference between 35 minutes of game of “the best of Halliburton” and “hobbled Halliburton” expands the difference in team Power Ratings from what had been mispriced to what’s now “properly priced.
G4 and G5 landed very close to the closing point spread. OKC covered the first by a point, the second by two points. Final moments right around the number. In games where a proven “last minute scorer” wasn’t healthy enough to work any magic for the underdog.
Thunder are now virtual locks to lift the trophy. Let’s crunch the number in G5 before looking ahead to G6…
(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey.)
*Oklahoma City (-9) beat Indiana 120-109
What happened with Treys?
Oklahoma City 14/32 (44%), Indiana 11/30 (37%)
Plus 9 points from long range (with one fewer miss) in a game that was only won by 11 points. Clearly Indiana’s lack of trey volume all series has made it hard to spring the series upset.
Made treys by game vs. OKC: 18-14-9-11-11
Made treys by game vs. NYK: 15-13-5-13-10-17
Made treys by game vs. Cleveland: 19-11-9-15-15
Pacers are arguably championship material at 13-15 makes (certainly at 17-18). But, not good enough in a SuperLeague environment to earn multiple wins at 11 or less. (Last three games have been 9-11-11…which can’t really work in the modern game.)
What happened with everything else?
Trey-Less Efficiency: Oklahoma City .94, Indiana .89
Oklahoma City won free throws 26/32 to 24/30 and turnovers 22-11. Indiana won two-point shooting 50-42% and rebounds 50-45. What the Pacers did right was trumped by all of those turnovers. Great job by OKC’s intense defense to force that many. Indiana should have figured out by now how NOT to implode to that degree. Of course, tougher to do with Halliburton at less than 100%.
That advantage in TOs has helped OKC control “non-trey” elements. If wins were based on Trey-less Efficiency, this series would already be over.
Trey-less Efficiency
G1: Oklahoma City .85, Indiana .68
G2: Oklahoma City .97, Indiana .78
G3: Indiana .98, Oklahoma City .85
G4: Oklahoma City 1.02, Indiana .82
G5: Oklahoma City .94, Indiana .89
First time the category wasn’t decided by double digits (if you throw out the decimals). OKC’s mix of “usually winning turnovers” and “always winning free throws” is going to be tough for anyone to overcome. POSSIBLY FOR YEARS! Don’t want to imply that this was Indiana’s series with a healthy Halliburton. Last two games would have been more competitive in the final minutes. OKC is playing championship level basketball.