Quarterfinals: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings for College Football Playoff
Ohio State, Texas Earn Respect with Impressive Opening Victories
We’re still dealing with a larger margin for error than preferred when trying to estimate how “the market” is currently rating the final eight college football teams fighting for the national championship.
*Boise State and Arizona State are unknown quantities in terms of how they’ll match up with true elites. Kinda like Indiana last week, who was badly outclassed at Notre Dame until garbage time…and SMU, who was smuthered at Penn State.
*Ohio State earned a lot of respect by bullying Tennessee. But, the Buckeyes were still overpriced down the stretch in some ugly, grinding nailbiters. Who knows exactly what the market is thinking about this team?
*Texas is now the top team on the futures board after clubbing Cade Klubnik and Clemson. Though, that’s mostly because the Horns are about 84% to 16% to advance past Arizona State…while Ohio State and Oregon are 56% to 44%. Ohio State would probably be favored over Texas in the semifinals….meaning OSU should be higher on a Power Ratings scale despite losing to Michigan, having to sweat Nebraska, and losing at Oregon.
*Georgia will be missing its starting QB after elbow surgery. The world can only guess how much of a drop off (if any) there will be to the blue chip backup.
*Notre Dame and Penn State seem to be a smidge behind…but nobody’s certain about the size of that smidge.
I took my best shot at updating our Power Ratings scale to match the market. I want to emphasize to newcomers this is now how I would personally rate the teams. I’m trying to reverse-engineer how “the market,” the composite sum of “wisdom of the informed crowds” (oddsmakers openers sharpened by professional bettors), is rating teams. We can use this scale to anticipate future point spreads. Or, argue with each other about Notre Dame.
Here are current point spreads as I’m writing this article. All are neutral field games. If there was a 7-point favorite, it would go 7 rungs higher than its opponent on the ladder. When a game has settled on a half-point, I round down. If sharps liked the favorite at that price…they would have already bet that favorite up to the solid number.
*Penn State -11 vs. Boise State
*Texas -14 vs. Arizona State
*Ohio State -2.5 vs. Oregon
*Georgia -1.5 vs. Notre Dame
Estimated “Market” Power Ratings
88: Ohio State
86: Oregon
86: Texas
84: Georgia (no Beck)
83: Penn State, Notre Dame
72: Arizona State, Boise State
Here’s how I got there…
Ohio State (88) -2.5 vs. Oregon (86)
Our rules say OSU has to be two points better. It’s pretty arbitrary where I stick this couplet. We know that Oregon was -3 vs. Penn State in the Big 10 Championship game (and covered). That gives me a recent triplet. I settled on 88-86-83 for that triplet. It’s possible that 89-87-84 is better. Penn State fans would likely argue with me because I had Penn State at 84 last week and dropped them a point! Just trying to make it all fit. How far should Ohio State jump? Did the Buckeyes finally rise to the level the market was expecting all along? Did I have Oregon 87/Penn State 84 too high last week? It’s all guesswork because there’s so little connectivity amongst the elites. Penn State might be better than Notre Dame. Might be worse. It’s going to be awhile before we can sort out that PSU/ND/Georgia triplet. I was happiest with 88/86 for this matchup. That would put Penn State at 83 because the Nittany Lions were a 3-point neutral field dog to Oregon.
Texas (86) -14 vs. Arizona State (72)
I personally don’t think Arizona State is this bad. But, these teams have to be 14 rungs apart…and there’s no way Texas is #1 on this scale given futures pricing. I’ll spare you the math for now. Maybe I can talk about it more in the long wait before kickoff. Most simply…Ohio State going Oregon/Texas/Whoever in sequence is more difficult than Texas going Arizona State/Ohio State/Whoever in sequence. (Because Oregon would be a huge favorite over Arizona State.) Yet, Texas is only a little bit better off on the futures board right now (25% to win the playoff, OSU is 21%). If they both survive the first round, I think Ohio State would be favored head-to-head. (And, if Ohio State beats Oregon…who’s going to think anybody’s better than Ohio State?)
Georgia (84) -1 vs. Notre Dame (83)
Honestly no chance for certainty with this couplet. Maybe 83/82 is better because the market isn’t as high on ND as its fans are. Maybe 85/84 is better because the market loves the Georgia backup AND loves Notre Dame. We just won’t know until we see how the winner is priced in the semifinals. We know that Georgia and Penn State are both around +450 on futures boards…even though Penn State has a MUCH easier opener. That suggests Georgia would be favored head to head.
Penn State (83) -11 vs. Boise State (72)
We’re in the right ballpark. We know Penn State was only +3 vs. Oregon…played a very competitive game…then squashed SMU. We know the market has these two teams 11 points apart…and that Penn State is in a tier with Georgia and Notre Dame below Ohio State, Texas, and Oregon. Futures prices suggest those tiers are pretty tightly packed. Penn State’s still a name in the hat even with losses to Oregon and Ohio State on the resume.
There’s no way I’d have the confidence to say THIS SCALE NAILS IT! But, I do think we’re in the right ballpark. Boise State and Arizona State will tell us how pretender-ish (or not) they were. Penn State and Texas will either confirm elite status by blowing those guys out, or play into the hands of skeptics by NOT blowing them out. GREAT litmus tests in the other two games.
That’s it for this estimate. We’ll update next week if it looks like SHARP MONEY is moving some of the lines. Won’t do that if it’s just the public betting favorites in such a one-sided manner that sports books have to adjust to protect their bosses from overly one-sided action.
If you like reading about college football, pro football, and soon…college basketball from a market perspective. This is a great time to sign up for a monthly subscription. The National Championship game is set for January 20. That’s less than a month away. So…so signing up for a calendar month for $20 will get you all the remaining bowl games…the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals of the championship playoff…plus all NFL from now until then…and the beginning of our regular season SEC coverage in college hoops (league slate starts January 4).
That means:
*Reports on how SHARPS (professional wagerers) are betting every football game.
*Stat recaps of every football game, emphasizing key indicator stats that best showcase team skill sets on offense and defense. Sharps bet based on skill sets rather than trends, angles, “fading the public” or a variety of other things that you hear (unfortunately) in sports betting media. Sharps bet based on what they think the “right” line is after comparing the stuff that matters most on the field.
*Estimated “market” Power Ratings for pro and college football (and eventually SEC hoops). If you’re betting sports, it’s “you against the market.” Good to know how the market is probably thinking.
*What so far has been our “exclusive” posting of “drives in innings” that lets you see how football games played out through important possessions and unimportant possessions. Positive feedback so far. No other media entity has picked them up! You can figure them yourselves for every game, or let me do the work for you.
*Other stat things that pop up. This season we’ve been focusing on offensive touchdowns scored as a percentage drives. Definitely a good learning tool. We’ll have team profiles for the NFL playoffs…and at least monitor it on a per-game bases through the college playoff.
Great time to try it out and see if you like it. Only $20 is obviously less than a dollar a day. You’ll be getting at least an article a day, often more.
The best value is to sign up for a calendar year for $75. That will also get you the rest of the SEC basketball regular season and tournament. March Madness (sharps reports and stat recaps), the NBA Playoffs (same), the UFL (stat recaps at least…markets haven’t been very liquid for significant sharp betting), something of interest from the MLB regular season, our standard coverage for the MLB postseason, and then ALL FOOTBALL THROUGH THIS DATE IN 2025! Holy crap that’s a lot of articles. Pennies a day. We’re closing in on 900 articles emailed to subscribers since this project began in August 2023.
(Note, I’m focusing on SEC basketball because I’m a Texas alum. Last season we did that for the Big 12 and it was a lot of fun. This season…the SEC just happens to be the most loaded hoops league by a mile. Might be even more fun! But, probably not for Texas fans.)
There’s also an option to become a “free” subscriber, which gets you the first couple paragraphs of almost every article…and occasional free posts like this one.
Thanks for reading. If you’re already a subscriber, thanks for your continued interest and support. Back with subscribers by late Tuesday night to see how sharps have been betting Wednesday’s two NFL games…Kansas City at Pittsburgh and Baltimore at Houston. Bowls resume Thursday…then the schedule gets super-busy. See you again soon!