Reviewing the “Cleanest” and “Sloppiest” Offenses from 2024 NFL
Do You Remember the Best and Worst?
With the start of the NFL Preseason just a few weeks away, we’ll start gearing up for market and stat coverage through July with a review of key stats from 2024.
A little stat I invented many, many years ago has been surprisingly popular because it paints an accurate picture of execution with very little math. I initially thought it was “too simple” to devote much time to. But, I often end up having to talk people down from their first ecstatic response.
It DOES do a great job of painting a picture
It’s LESS predictive game-to-game than you’d imagine because TOs have an element of randomness
Notice I said “element” rather than the once-common refrain that “turnovers are random.” If turnovers were totally random, then well-coached offenses led by smart veteran QB’s wouldn’t be so great at avoiding them. And, poorly coached offenses or those led by rookies or strong-armed guys who love throwing into traffic wouldn’t be so bad about committing them. Turnovers are so CLOSELY connected to risk/reward dynamics that no sane person could think they were random. There are certainly elements of randomness influencing WHEN they occur. Studies of TOs wouldn’t align so well with known skill sets if giveaways/takeaways were totally random.
You regulars know this stat is called “sloppiness.” Lower is better for an offense because it wants to AVOID sloppiness. “Forcing” sloppiness is what a defense is trying to do. Higher is better if you’re looking at defenses (which we’ll do some other day, not today).
In short: Sloppiness is 5 times the number of turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes. If a team has…
3 Turnovers
15 Incomplete passes
…that’s a “sloppiness score” of 30. The three turnovers work out to 15 because you multiply those by five. Then, you add in the 15 incomplete passes to get 30.
Remember, LOWER is better because you want to avoid sloppiness. It’s possible to be in single digits in a game from a passing line like 20-25-0-220 without any giveaways. (Sloppiness score of 5 with the 5 incomplete passes). Anything in the 20’s is disappointing by today’s standards. Then, 30 or more is a debacle.
How did I come up with the formula? Tinkering. Multiplying turnovers by 4 didn’t seem like enough. By six was too many. Porridge was just right at 5. Really that simple. I was just playing around with the concept one day…with no idea that it would hit the eye so well over many decades (it is multiple decades now).
Yes, a grade-schooler could have thought it up. It’s not “analytics” by any stretch. Just a number that helps tell a story. Well, multiple stories.
Let’s get to 2024’s offensive numbers. We’ll start with the BEST teams at AVOIDING sloppiness. Lower numbers from the 2024 regular season were…
Least Sloppy Offenses in 2024
Baltimore 214
LA Chargers 219
Philadelphia 220
Detroit 227
Buffalo 231
Kansas City 236
Washington 240
Who says coaches don’t matter?! Two Harbaugh-led teams ranked best in the regular season. I said in an article the other day that the Super Bowl champ ranked second. I was wrong. I had the teams divided by divisions at that time…and somehow skipped over LAC. Philadelphia eventually ran the playoff table from third position. Just a few digits short of the Harbaugh’s. Really, all SEVEN teams above were great. Particular kudos to Washington for doing that with a kid QB.
Entering 2025, your short list of potential Lombardi Trophy winners are effective offenses that avoid miscues.
I know you’re wondering about the worst. I’ll jump ahead to that, then fill in the middle afterward. Do you remember who was worst? If you don’t, you’ll say “yeah, of course” as soon as you see it. One team was OFF THE CHARTS horrible. A lot of people’s first thought might be “Dallas” because Cowboy woes are always so well publicized (Pokes were second-worst). Readers from Las Vegas might think it was the Raiders (third worst). Here’s a listing of the five worst…
NFL’s Sloppiest Teams
Cleveland 436
Dallas 379
Las Vegas 370
Indianapolis 369
Tennessee 364
I had forgotten how bad Indy and Tennessee were with messy QB situations and coaching staffs that may not have been emphasizing ball care enough. Cleveland was so bad that the Browns could have just not shown up late in the season and still finished worst in the league. We’ll dig deeper into those five messes later this summer. Good news is…something this bad is easily fixable just by acquiring a journeyman QB and using common sense.
Okay….you know the best and worst. Let’s fill in the middle. This next group wasn’t quite elite…but was still pretty good. You’ll recognize some teams from the playoffs…
Reasonably Clean, Promising for 2025
Pittsburgh 263
LA Rams 266
Green Bay 266
Arizona 269
Tampa Bay 278
Miami 283
Denver 286
Minnesota 289
Chicago 293
Great for Denver to rank here with a rookie QB. Will Pittsburgh get sloppier with Aaron Rodgers? He’s prone to get stubborn. Good showing for Chicago’s rookie QB all things considered. Some rookies are disasters. He wasn’t. Minnesota’s hoping to get better. New signal caller may be the answer, or may have a learning curve.
Too Sloppy, But Not Disasters
Atlanta 315
Carolina 316
NY Jets 317
San Francisco 319
Jacksonville 323
NY Giants 340
San Francisco was probably a disaster compared to expectations, and this coach’s past history. Niners were supposed to be a dangerous offense that marched up and down the field. It’s almost never good to rank between the Jets and Jaguars in any stat. Purdy better step up quickly or his era will coming to an end. G-men weren’t quite bad enough to stick with that earlier group of five debacles. Not that far away from being six debacles. And, wow…that means SF was in the bottom quarter. NEVER would have expected that entering 2024.
We have All-Star Breaks coming up in the WNBA and MLB…which will allow for more football discussion in the daily mix. We’ll talk more about offenses…take a look at which defenses are best at forcing sloppiness or prefer to play passively to keep everything in front of them.
I’ll also recap TD/Drive percentages on offense and defense. I think last year’s mix of…
TD/Drive Ratios
Sloppiness
Drives in Innings
…provided a mix of IMPORTANT information that you weren’t getting anywhere else. Were you getting anything like that anywhere else? Were you eventually mad (furious) that other places weren’t even NOTICING the important stuff you were learning about by studying TD/Drive ratios, risk/reward, and game flow as expressed in innings?
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