SEC STATEMENTS from Powers Florida and Alabama in Sweet 16

Blowout Wins and Covers on Night Duke Looks Mortal

At least for a night, nobody’s thinking the Duke Blue Devils are just going to waltz to a National Championship in the 2025 Big Dance.

Duke’s defense looked mortal in a high scoring shootout with 9.5-point underdog Arizona. Florida (a #1 seed) and Alabama (a #2 seed that could have been a #1) both won easily at smaller point spreads.

Let’s run the numbers and see what happened. I’ll go in tip-off order by region so it’s easier to visualize Saturday’s Elite 8 matchups.

GAMES IN NEWARK

*Alabama (-4.5) beat BYU 113-88

What happened with Treys?

Alabama 25/51 (49%), BYU 6/30 (20%)

Historic performance. A combination of Alabama’s great skill set in this regard, and BYU’s apparent lack of interest in guarding the arc because it’s just too big a hassle to run around that much. Very impressive intensity from Alabama in terms of exploiting that weakness. Kept getting open looks and draining them. Tide could slack off on inside defense (which you’ll see in a moment) because it doesn’t matter what you allow if you’re going to break 100. So far in the tournament 6/21, 7/17, and 25/51 for Alabama on treys. Thursday was a peak, but an outlier. Duke (or Arizona) won’t give away the arc so easily.

What happened with everything else?

Trey-Less Efficiency: BYU .96, Alabama .70

Alabama won two-point shooting 67-64%, but that was only on 10/15 shooting. Tide launched 51 three-point shots and only 15 two-point shots! BYU having 27 makes inside held the Cougars make a run at 90 points. Obviously, Trey-less efficiency doesn’t mean that much if the offense is scoring 75 points on treys. Alabama’s inside defense will likely be a much bigger concern in the next round. So far, allowed .86 to Robert Morris (awful considering opponent), .85 to St. Mary’s (manageable), and .96 to BYU.

What’s DUKE capable of? Well, Alabama just played Florida in the SEC semifinals, and that’s actually a pretty good comp. Gators beat ‘Bama 104-82, winning treys 12/27 to 11/35 and Trey-less efficiency 1.03 to .73. Duke is less TO prone than Florida, and just popped a 1.12 on Arizona in the nightcap. Alabama will have to lift its defensive effort considerably, or hope to make 20 treys for the second game in a row.