SEC Update: First Half Power Ratings, Home Court, Trey Expectations

Getting ready for Midweek Action

Let’s get caught up on a few themes in this respite from weekend to midweek action in SEC basketball. We introduced the concept of “first half” Power Ratings not too long ago. I’ve updated based on recent results.

My First Half Power Ratings

Auburn 45

Still a great team, but not crushing in 1H’s the way the Tigers had been. Just beat Arkansas by 6, Georgia by 5, which were non covers against high expectations. Brought them down a bit.

Missouri 44

Last two games were a 13-point first half win vs. Alabama (with that 12-0 burst out of the gate), and a 48-41 win at Arkansas before losing the 2H big (possibly fatigue, definitely some home cooking against them with a 37-17 differential in FT attempts). Still a first half juggernaut, even in losses. I’ve lifted them (again) from their prior total. Still might not be enough.

Alabama 43

Had to drop them with 1H losses to Auburn by 9 and to Missouri by 13 before beating Kentucky by 7 in the double bounce back. Definitely vulnerable vs. other elites at least. Makes sense to rank the Tide behind Auburn and Missouri based on what happened in those head-to head meetings. Maybe Alabama’s something like a 46 vs. bad teams, but only a 40 vs. quality.

Florida 43

Gators had a great first half vs. OU (46-24), but then a lousy one at LSU (lost 37-31). Inconsistent, but explosive. Seem to have one great half per game.

Tennessee 41

Good 1H at A&M may have been driven by good fortune on treys. Prior result was a 44-31 loss at HOME in the 1H to Vanderbilt. I think mostly disappointing, but capable of occasional strong 1H’s. A “41” is lower than you’d expect from the overall team rating. Generic early if treys aren’t falling.

Vanderbilt 40

Still overachieving to a fairly unbelievable degree in 1H’s. It’s like this is a 22-minute team! Won at Tennessee 44-31, lost at Kentucky only by a point 41-40, and beat Ole Miss 41-33. Great value early in games. No signs of regression yet…at least regressing to where you’d “think” a team of this general caliber would be.

Mississippi State 39

On a yo-yo lately…strong 1H at Ole Miss in a 40-33 win, home loss to A&M 31-30 as a slight favorite, road win at OU 37-34 before the defense died in the second half. I guess I have them numbered in the middle of a yo-yo.

Texas A&M 39

Two good outings (vs. Arkansas, at Mississippi State) before the 36-32 loss at home to Tennessee. Again, that may have been partially trey-driven based on games stats. Maybe 40 or 41 is better…but I’m never in sync with these guys.

Georgia 39

Hung tough in two most recent games, beating Mizzou 41-33 (which is pretty special!) and only losing at powerful Auburn by 5. Possible the Bulldogs should be higher than this, even if their overall W-L record doesn’t impress.

Kentucky 39

Wish the Wildcats get healthy so I can pin down what the market really thinks of them. Last three games were a 4-point 1H win at Texas, only a 1-point home win vs. Vandy, and a 7-point loss at Alabama near expectations.

Ole Miss 38

Slow starters of late, with a 7-point home loss to rival Mississippi State in a revenge spot, then (after a bye) an 8-point road loss at Vandy in what should have been a bounce-back spot. Not responding to intangibles. Not scaring anyone. This might actually be too high, even if it seems low based on their full-game Power Rating.

Arkansas 38

Team’s recent improvement really isn’t showing up in 1H’s. It’s a team that struggles to shoot consistently even when trying hard no matter what the game clock is showing. Last three games were a 5-point 1H loss at A&M, a 6-point home loss at Auburn (covering in a grinder),then the 7-point home loss to Mizzou before the big second half. Hogs may be a team that has to wear opponents down (with a coach who wears officials down in home games). This may also be too high, even if I like what I’ve been seeing in terms of recent full-game intensity.

LSU 38

Better than expected the last two games. Beat South Carolina 41-27 in the first 20 minutes, powerful Florida 37-31. But, that was after a 35-29 road loss at Oklahoma. At least they’re playing free and easy early, before the defense falls apart later on.

Texas 37

Sandwiched a bye with a 4-point home loss to Kentucky (in a game the Horns came back and won), and an 18-point loss at South Carolina (that had to be one of the worst first halves played by anybody in the league all season). Dropping them down. This coach showed some 1H magic last season in the Big 12. Tougher league, demanding travel, not the same this year. Might be a team where a road/home split is in order. Not confident enough with the small sample size to put that in place just yet.

Oklahoma 35

A lot of the recent demise has been in the second half. But, the last two games were a 37-34 home loss to Mississippi State and a 46-24 no-show at Florida. Too much matador defense vs. quality.

South Carolina 33

I actually lifted the Gamecocks to 32 after the blowout of Texas. Occasional good first halves. But, more likely to be blowout fodder on the road.