SEC Update: Hogs, Rebels, Wildcats 6-0 ATS in Dance, Everyone Else 5-11!
Mizzou, Georgia, Texas A&M Suffered Biggest Non-Covers
I didn’t want to let the opening week of the 2025 NCAA Tournament get too far back in the rearview mirror before doing a quick evaluation of the SEC. We spent the past few months studying the 16-team league pretty closely. Fully 14 of those 16 teams earned bids. Though the “big four” of Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee are still alive…I have to say the performance was disappointing.
That’s partially hidden in full conference records because Arkansas (two upsets), Ole Miss (two upsets) and Kentucky (one small upset) have all been pleasant surprises. They’re through to the Sweet 16 with 6-0 records straight up and against the spread. It’s hard to have an ugly overall record when “pleasant surprises” can go 2-0 while “one-and-done’s” bottom out at 0-1.
Let’s run through what’s happened in groups...
Pleasant Surprises (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS, Beat Market by 74 points)
*Arkansas upset Kansas and St. John’s, beating the spread by a combined 28 points.
*Ole Miss upset North Carolina and Iowa State, beating the spread by a combined 27 points.
*Kentucky throttled Troy then scored a small upset over Illinois, beating the spread by a combined 19 points.
GREAT results. No argument about that. But, out of 14 SEC entries, those are the only “wow” moments. Well, the only “good wow” moments. There have been several bad wow moments.
One and Dones (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS, Total Miss 39 points)
*Vanderbilt was the only quick elimination that actually covered its point spread. Tight loss to a St. Mary’s team that was soon outclassed by Alabama. Commodores covered by one point.
*Oklahoma hung tough with defending champion Connecticut. But, not as tough as betting markets expected. Sooners missed the mark by three points.
*Mississippi State flunked a litmus test against Baylor, losing outright as a very small favorite. Then Baylor was routed by Duke. State had been stumbling for weeks entering this event. Missed the spread by four points in its finale. I’m ranking this section by margins of “missed the spread.” Guess I could have mentioned that earlier.
*Texas led much of play-in night, but then lost to the Xavier team that fell to Illinois. Missed the spread by four points. Probably shouldn’t have received an invitation in the first place. Took upsets in the SEC tournament just to prolong the agony of us alums.
*Georgia fell behind Gonzaga 27-3 in one of the worst flunked litmus tests in the history of mankind. That’s NOT being ready for a big game! Bulldogs missed the spread by 14 points after trimming the deficit a bit through lengthy garbage time.
*Missouri confirmed concerns about peaking too early with a bad loss to Drake. Tigers missed the spread by 15 points.
Does all that cancel out the 6-0 spread performances from Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Kentucky? Depends on how you frame it. With records, it all cancels out. For a old grouch like me, that’s three teams with good results and six with losses.
That leaves us with FIVE teams that advanced through the first week but DIDN’T sweep their point spreads. Our “big four” from the regular season and Texas A&M. Aggies fell by the wayside. Rest still have a chance to run the table.