Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Shockers in WNBA! New York/Indiana BOTH Lose as Big Favorites

Shockers in WNBA! New York/Indiana BOTH Lose as Big Favorites

Handicapping Workshop (6/19 to 6/20)

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Jeff Fogle
Jun 20, 2025
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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Shockers in WNBA! New York/Indiana BOTH Lose as Big Favorites
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Wow!

Amazing night in the WNBA…

  • Phoenix (+11.5) upset New York 89-81

  • Golden State (+11) upset Indiana 88-77

Not just easy covers…not just outright upsets…but disrespected underdogs BOTH covering by about 20 points against arguably the two most “marquee” teams in the league right now.

Glass half-full…there’s a larger depth of talent in this league than it gets credit for. And, prior to the season, there had been a pool of WNBA-caliber players (and coaches) that justified expansion. Golden State used common sense (and a great coach) to become immediately relevant with talent that was supposed to be “replacement level” at best.

Glass half-empty…it can be tough for “hero-worship” journalism and marketing to promote a league where THIS happens to two of its biggest stars on the same night…

  • Caitlin Clark: 3/14 shooting, 1/7 on treys, 6 TOs

  • Sabrina Ionescu: 3/16 shooting, 1/10 on treys, 5 TOs

Easy math…6 of 30 from the floor, 1 of 17 on treys. Shooting is inconsistent by nature. But, in a league like this, defensive schematics that know how to disrupt, or get on the nerves, of key shooters can ruin promotional efforts. Clarks 3/14 effort wasn’t even the worst performance of the night by a superstar.

If you’re the type to bet favorites….your glass is more like 90% empty after a night like this (including OKC in the NBA!). If you’re a dog lover…that’s champagne, not water.

Let’s crunch the numbers…

Phoenix (+11.5) won at New York 89-81

  • Two-Point Shooting: Phoenix 56%, New York 51%

  • Treys: New York 8/26 (31%), New York 7/31 (23%)

  • Other Keys: Phoenix won free throws 22/27 to 21/25, rebounds 43-23, and turnovers 19-13. So…a truly CONVINCING win rather than something driven by good three-point luck (Trey Bedlam common in shockers). Phoenix won on the road, in a back-to-back spot, by EIGHT points despite being outscored by three from long range. Beat a team that had thrived at fundamentals in all the stuff that mattered.

  • Pace: 81.8, possibly due to whistle-happy refs rather than anything frantic

Phoenix lifted its game significantly from the win over C-Sun the night before. New York kinda replayed the first three quarters of the Atlanta game rather than the valiant fourth. Liberty feel like they lost 7 points in Power Ratings from earlier form. So many things going south all at the same time. Should note that Jonquel Jones could only play 9 minutes because of an injury. Certainly a part of why Phoenix dominated so many different stat categories.

Very impressive result for the Mercury. In context, it will stand as one of the most impressive performances by any team all season.

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