Slow Start of Aaron Rodgers in Context
Facing Good Defenses, Some awkward Conditions
A lot of NY Jets talk in sports media today. Wanted to add some context to what many of you have been hearing…or reading…or even writing.
The start of Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense hasn’t been as bad as it seems, once you adjust for context. It may seem horrible, if you were imaging that this unit was going to score 30 points a game because a Rodgers found his best form of the ancient past. Based on the caliber of defenses he was facing…and game conditions…it’s way to early to ring the alarms.
This writing project has been studying how often teams score touchdowns (or allow them) as a percentage of drive opportunities. Too many simple things are overlooked these days in the era of microscopic analytic breakdowns. How often do offenses score touchdowns? How often do defenses allow them? Why overlook THAT stuff just to zoom in super-close on how often Receiver X was targeted when Quarterback Y was being pressured?
Here are the Jets TD percentage by game, when compared to what their opponents allowed to other offenses in their other games…
TD on 33% of drives at SF, who allowed 21% in its other games
TD on 30% of drives at TENN, who allowed 9% in its other games
TD on 38% of drives vs. NE, who allowed 15% in its other games
All things considered, that’s a pretty fantastic start. Sure, the Jets weren’t lighting up the scoreboard like some sort of offensive juggernaut. But, they were efficiently putting points on the board against decent (and better) defenses. Jets were 2-1 straight up and against betting market expectations through three games. Then, this happened…
TD on 0% of drives vs. Denver, who allowed 15% in its other games
TD on 15% of drives vs. Minnesota, who allowed 15% in its other games
Was that a collapse, or a reason for despair? Jets couldn’t score against one of the league’s best defenses (so far in ’24) in the RAIN. Then, essentially shot par golf at a neutral site on a continent known for iffy playing surfaces when the NFL tries to play there.
Against STRONG defenses…in difficult conditions…the Jets did fall short. But, Rodgers and his offense haven’t had any games yet against soft defenses…or in domes. Part of the reason he’s not in the Top 20 in ESPN’s QBR is that his schedule has been unbalanced. Rodgers didn’t get to throw against Carolina, or Cincinnati, or Jacksonville, or play in one of those Atlanta indoor shootouts against New Orleans or Tampa Bay. He had to play in the RAIN against DENVER (only 7 TDs allowed in 59 possessions all season). He had to play in London against MINNESOTA (9 in 59 all season).
It's like trying to judge a jumper who’s wearing ankle weights. How high is he going to jump when he’s not wearing weights?
I’m not saying Rodgers and the Jets are a Super Bowl team about to be unleashed. But, the doomsday descriptions and forecasts have to be put in context. If the Jets have bad offensive games against Buffalo, Houston, Arizona, and Indianapolis between now and Thanksgiving then bring all of those hot takes and clickbait headlines.
He outperformed what other offenses have done against San Francisco, Tennessee, and New England. Report that too. Be aware that Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL so far. Why have so few NFL pundits even noticed that? They just want to make Bo Nix jokes? Sloppiness in England? The NFL “pendulum do” that sometimes.
Anyway. Because this writing project has been studying TD ratios as a percentage of drive opportunities this season, I felt this angle wasn’t being properly covered in wake of Tuesday’s personnel developments. Wanted to get it down on paper when it was still fresh in my mind.