St. Mary’s Stomps Gonzaga
We STILL Don’t Know if Gonzaga is a Serious Dance Threat!
With the NCAA Tournament fast approaching, the original scope of this writing project will expand. We won’t be focused only on the Big 12. There will be sharps reports and stat summaries for EVERY game played in the Big Dance. This week, I’ll pick my spots as time permits to focus on major conferences and additional Dance-bound teams.
Tuesday night, a very important game out west. And, a surprise, as favored (and fairly hot) Gonzaga laid a big egg vs. rival St. Mary’s. Let’s see what happened.
St. Mary’s (+3) 69, Gonzaga 60
2-point Pct: Gonzaga 51%, St. Mary’s 50%
3-pointers: Gonzaga 2/11, St. Mary’s 6/15
Free Throws: Gonzaga 10/14, St. Mary’s 15/22
Rebounds: Gonzaga 22, St. Mary’s 39
Turnovers: Gonzaga 7, St. Mary’s 13
Kenpom Pace: 63 possessions
Some thought that Gonzaga would be playing on a virtual home court in Las Vegas because its crowd travels so well. Didn’t seem to matter (and, Gonzaga’s home court edge in Spokane is only 2.8 points anyway according to Kenpom). Poor defense (50% on two’s, 40% on threes) and awful rebounding. And, honestly, not much passion in the chase with only 2 of 11 on treys. St. Mary’s must have been doing a great job of guarding the arc and denying open looks.
It's only one game. And, St. Mary’s did have quick turnaround revenge after losing at home to Gonzaga 70-57 back on March 2. Clearly the Gaels came to play! I think we can confidently say that THIS version of Gonzaga has no chance to matter in the tournament.
*You can’t be that soft on defense and the boards if you’re going to string together wins vs. quality.
*You can’t be that timid on offense when a good, slow team takes you out of your comfort zone.
*You can’t just show up and hope the opponent trembles at the sight of you.
Gonzaga will play better than THIS in the first round of the Dance, most likely. Will it play well enough to scare other national powers?
Here’s a fun exercise. We know Gonzaga closed -3 vs. St. Mary’s Tuesday night on a neutral court. That means “the market” thinks Gonzaga is three points better in Power Ratings. Where would you put THAT couplet on this scale from our estimated “market” Power Ratings for the Big 12?
89: Houston
85: Iowa State
84: Baylor, Kansas (when healthy)
83: BYU
82: Texas Tech
81: TCU, Texas
80: Cincinnati
79: Oklahoma
78: Central Florida
77: Kansas State
73: Oklahoma State
71: West Virginia
Is Gonzaga equal to Iowa State, St. Mary’s equal to Texas Tech? That’s 85 and 82. Maybe.
Skeptics of West Coast basketball have made some pretty compelling cases through the years. For every entry that sneaks through (better versions of Gonzaga, San Diego State), there are several versions that underachieve expectations (sometimes St. Mary, many Mountain West flops).
Is it more like 83 and 80 (BYU and Cincinnati)? It’s probably not as low as 81 and 78, because St. Mary’s isn’t likely just an equal to somebody like Central Florida. Where would YOU pencil them in? And, what Dance seeds would those represent?
I should note that Kenpom has Gonzaga and St. Mary’s closer together than the market did. Just a point right now once you adjust the efficiency metric down from 100 possessions to a normal college expectation. Maybe THAT’S right. Where do you put the one-point couplet?
I have not been following this conference. I’ve only been following skepticism about Gonzaga until it started to click late in the season. I’m okay with 82 and 81. I’m skeptical about 83 and 82 or better. I wouldn’t be shocked if real-world Dance action makes it look more like 81 and 80, or even 80 and 79. Looking forward to finding out next week when the Dance begins.
If you’re new to reading reports from this writing project. There will be free content here and there from now through the Dance. But, much fuller analysis regarding how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting every game in the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments…and box score summaries like the one above for every game in those events for paid subscribers. IF YOU LIKE THIS KIND OF MATERIAL, you just can’t get it anywhere else in such handy fashion.
Subscription Options
*FREE, which gets you bits and pieces of many daily articles and occasional longer articles. All emailed directly to your inbox. (Also, should X—formerly twitter fade out of sports media, that’s a way you can stay in contact with this sort of material for free).
*Just $20 for a calendar month from RIGHT NOW, which would take you all the way through the Big Dance with a few days of extra articles to spare. Pennies a day for a comprehensive study of a very exciting sports spectacle from a market and stat handicapping perspective.
*Just $75 for a calendar YEAR from right now, which would obviously include the entire 2024 college and pro football seasons as well. A lot of interest last season in the sharps reports, estimated “market” Power Ratings, and other regular features. I will be doing the NBA Playoffs when those begin in a few weeks. I’ll also do a full season of the UFL (spring football merger of the XFL and USFL) that begins at the end of March.
Thanks for reading this quick free article. I’ll be back for paid subscribers before dinner time Wednesday with stat recaps of BYU/Central Florida and TCU/Oklahoma. Busy week…and busy month ahead!