Sweet 16: Estimated “Market” Power Ratings
How Does the “Wisdom of the Informed Crowd” Rate Contenders?
Wanted to give point spreads a day to settle before jumping into a new estimate for “market” Power Ratings. Unfortunately, it’s still a bit tricky. If you have a handful of team playing each other…it’s pretty easy to differentiate amongst that handful. But, if you have a few GREAT teams laying about 8-9 points to “decent” opponents, it’s still hard to know how the GREAT rate against each other.
We know that Duke is 9 better than Arizona
We know that Houston is 8 better than Purdue
We know that Auburn is 8 better than Michigan
We know that Florida is 6 better than Maryland
But, we can’t be certain how Duke, Houston, Auburn, and Florida all rate against each other until/if they all reach the Final Four.
I took my best shot at it…also using information from point spreads posted in recent action (earlier in the Dance, last week’s major conference tournaments). I still think margin for error is about a point in either direction for all 16 teams. Possible that it’s 2 points. But, this is a good-faith effort to get it right…rather than somebody lobbying for their favorite team to get more respect.
First, I’ll run all 16 teams as a group. Then, I’ll break it down by regional matchups so I can explain my thinking. I’m confident these are good ballpark assessments of how “the market” sees things right now. Feel free to disagree in the comments below. Just make sure you base your disagreements on recent point spreads for BOTH teams in a matchup. If you think Duke should be a 94, you also have to make the case that Arizona should be an 85. We know “the market” has those teams 9 points apart.
SWEET 16
91: Duke
89: Florida, Houston
88: Auburn
86: Alabama
85: Tennessee
83: Texas Tech, Maryland
82: Michigan State, Arizona
81: Purdue, Kentucky, BYU
80: Michigan
79: Ole Miss
78: Arkansas
That’s all 16 teams. Duke’s toughest possible gauntlet is Arizona-Alabama-Houston-Florida. Duke’s easiest possible gauntlet is Arizona-BYU-then two games vs. low 80’s high 70’s.
Let’s break them down by region. Thursday’s four games first, followed by Friday’s four games…
EAST
Alabama (86) -5 vs. BYU (81)
We know they have to be five rungs apart. We know that Alabama was +3 vs. Florida in the SEC tournament. So, I stuck Alabama three points below Florida on the chart above. Felt right enough to have BYU at 81. BYU was sitting on +7 vs. Houston through a lot of the betting window in the Big 12 tournament. Those all fit together logically on the rungs above. That at least restricts margin for error pretty tightly. I’m happy with those ratings.
Duke (91) -9 vs. Arizona (82)
I had Duke a smidge lower entering the tournament. I do think the market is responding to a high level of play. Some might argue not enough. But, as I hinted at a few seconds ago…if you think Duke should be higher, you also have to lift Arizona higher. Arizona was +6 vs. Houston in the Big 12 championship game. It’s helpful to have so much connectivity through that channel. No Cinderellas means we have recent action within this “Super-League” of 16 teams to base ratings on. If Arizona was +6 vs. Houston, and is +9 vs. Duke, that suggests Duke would be -3 vs. Houston right now. Personally, I’m interested to see if Duke is going to surge to 95-ish (or infinity-ish) the way UCONN did last year. Baylor’s defense isn’t vintage this season…so Sunday’s blowout may not mean everything the stats suggested.
WEST
Florida (89) -6.5 vs. Maryland (83)
Florida hasn’t impressed the way Duke has. It’s definitely possible the market is thinking of this as 88 vs. 82. And, Maryland was -2 vs. Michigan…which would be a vote for 88/82 rather than 89/83. I’m going to stick with the premise that Florida was SO GREAT down the stretch that 89 makes a bit more sense for the Gators. I wouldn’t argue with you if you thought otherwise. I logged too many box scores during SEC play to just assume a crash is coming because the UCONN game went down to the wire.
Texas Tech (83) -5.5 vs. Arkansas (78)
I could see 82/77…and that probably would have been the couplet entering the Dance based on conference tournament lines. Arkansas has obviously been impressive so far. Tech had great numbers vs. Drake (not vs. Wilmington). I’m giving both some credit for being MUCH better than the market expected last weekend (Tech covered despite shooting 2/14 on treys, Arkansas won outright vs. St. John’s despite shooting 2/19 on treys!). That’s strong stuff in the other important categories that aren’t so fickle. I’m happy with those, but I wouldn’t argue with you if you thought they were a smidge high.
SOUTH
Michigan State (82) -3 vs. Ole Miss (79)
I’m not sure how to read Sparty’s pricing in recent weeks. Not priced like a power…but a bit better than other Big 10 teams that haven’t embarrassed themselves. I might have talked myself into 83/80 if I thought about it five more minutes. If Ole Miss hadn’t been plus 9 points on treys in both of its Dance wins, I would have settled there instead. Let’s say it’s either 83/80 or 82/79…and probably not as high as 84/81, and almost certainly not as low as 81/78. Then, we’ll learn from how the winner is priced in the Elite 8.
Auburn (88) -8.5 vs. Michigan (80)
Possible that 89/81 is the better guess. Michigan was +2 to Maryland in the Big 10 tournament. Auburn was -5 vs. Tennessee in the SEC semifinals. Tigers have been so unimpressive vs. expectations in recent action that I just couldn’t justify 89 to my eyeballs. Certainly possible that Michigan is an 81 or an 82, and the market is STILL just too high on Auburn. But, our rules say that they have to be 8 rungs part. Something like 87/79 was clearly too low for Michigan. And, 89/81 would be too high for how Auburn’s been playing lately.
MIDWEST
Tennessee (85) -4.5 vs. Kentucky (81)
Gotta be four rungs apart. Nudging Tennessee up to 86 is too high because the Vols closed +5 vs. Florida in the SEC title tilt then didn’t cover. Coming down to 84 is justifiable for Tennessee…but Kentucky’s playing better than an 80 in recent weeks. Bad loss to Alabama in the SEC tourney was in a fatigue spot…b2b vs. fresh team the night after a buzzer battle with Oklahoma. Kentucky’s not as consistent as you’d like…but that inconsistency is probably centering above 80 after the win/covers over Troy and Illinois.
Houston (89) -8 vs. Purdue (81)
Not sure what to do with Purdue. Many were skeptical heading into games with High Point and McNeese. But, the Boilers were priced with respect vs. Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. Houston is where in needs to be based on where we have Arizona and BYU from its conference. And, Houston is a bit below but within arm’s reach of Duke…which seems to be a general consensus. An 89 made the most sense to me for Houston…so Purdue had to sit eight rungs below at 81. I could be talked into 90/82 by optimists. I could probably be talked down to 88/80 by pessimists!
That’s it for this update. I’ll tweak later in the week if smart money seems to be moving point spreads around. That’s less likely this deep into a season when major conference teams are all playing each other. No secrets to be discovered unless somebody gets hurt in practice. Betting lines are going to be very solid. That helps pin down “what the market is thinking” for those of you battling the market with your predictions.
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