Trey Bedlam! Pacers +30 Points, Warriors +36 Points on Three-Pointers!
Clear Keys to Sunday Upsets for Golden State in G7, Indiana in G1
It’s been awhile since we had to talk about Trey Bedlam wreaking havoc on the basketball court. Sure, three-point fickleness has mattered here and there through the NBA Playoffs (not as often as in late-season college hoops). But, Sunday, EXTREME performances that directly impacted results.
Indiana 19/36 (53%)
Cleveland 9/38 (24%)
That’s +30 points on almost the same number of attempts. In a game Indiana only won by nine. Particularly important in this matchup because trey-volume is more of a strength for Cleveland rather than Indiana.
Golden State 18/43 (42%)
Houston 6/18 (33%)
Houston made three of four in the final 1:37 of garbage time to turn a woeful 3 of 14 into something less ugly. Plenty ugly enough, because Golden State was plus 36 points in a game it won by 14. Houston was at 21% until that little, meaningless flurry. The Warriors pulled away and won easily because of three-point dominance.
That’s the short version of what happened Sunday. Let’s dig a little deeper. As usual, we’ll take the games I tipoff order…
(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey.)
*Indiana (+8.5) won at Cleveland
What happened with Treys?
Indiana 19/36 (53%), Cleveland 9/37 (24%)
You knew those numbers already. Cleveland had made 18-22-16-22 in the last round. Sure, that was against Miami. But, Indiana’s not a defensive juggernaut. And, Cleveland regularly had runs into the high teens and low 20’s during the regular season. Extreme outlier, which sometimes happens in a series opener if a favorite hadn’t played in a while. Cavs better think about GUARDING the arc more aggressively instead of just worrying about all the misses.
What happened with everything else?
Trey-Less Efficiency: Cleveland .95, Indiana .81
Cleveland won two-point shooting 60-53% and turnovers 16-7. Indiana won free throws 14/15 to 13/18. Both teams grabbed 43 rebounds.
Probably important to note that Indiana had been enjoying a big edge over Milwaukee in this stat back in the first round. Pacers won that series 4-1. In the four victories, Trey-less efficiency was (taking out the decimals) 95-83, 92-88, 99-74, and 88-70. Big reversal here. Looks like Indiana MUST win treys to have a chance to win this series against a much tougher opponent.
Indiana leads the series 1-0. Definitely a big scoreboard win for the Pacers. But, a big win with a red flag. Pacers were outscored 85-64 inside the arc…and almost definitely won’t DOMINATE treys like that three more times. Cleveland is still the market favorite because it will be pricey home favorites up to three more times, with the games at Indiana being closer to coin flips. If Cavs win two of three more at home, and split the two road coin flips…that’s still a 4-3 series win despite dropping the opener.