Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle

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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Valkyries Shoot 11 of 41 on Two-Pointers! Lose Thriller in “Ballhalla”

Valkyries Shoot 11 of 41 on Two-Pointers! Lose Thriller in “Ballhalla”

Phoenix Outlasts Golden State 78-77 on Late Free Throw

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Jeff Fogle
Jul 15, 2025
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Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Figure it Out: Sports Betting Commentary by Jeff Fogle
Valkyries Shoot 11 of 41 on Two-Pointers! Lose Thriller in “Ballhalla”
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Two games to recap in Monday Night’s WNBA Workshop. We’ll also take a quick look at Tuesday’s twin bill.

I have to admit, the growing media buzz about calling the home arena for the Golden State Valkyries “Ballhalla” is great to see. I guess everybody learned Norse mythology by watching “Thor” movies. Better than my idea for Valkyries music videos to the tune of “Valeri” from the Monkees. John Tesh is probably already writing a new song called “Ragnar-Rock.”

Let’s run the numbers from Tuesday’s games, going in schedule order…

(If you’re a first-time reader, our stat summaries separate the often-random three-point performances from “everything else.” A shortcut stat we developed for “everything else” is “Trey-less Efficiency,” which is points scored on 1’s and 2’s divided by the number of possessions that DON’T end with a made trey.)

Minnesota (-11.5) won at Chicago 91-78

  • Treys: Minnesota 12/32 (38%), Chicago 7/16 (44%)

  • Two-Point Shooting: Minnesota 54%, Chicago 50%

  • Trey-Less Efficiency: Minnesota .82, Chicago .79

  • Other Keys: Minnesota won turnovers 18-10

  • Pace: 78.7

Fairly close outside of treys and TOs…but those were BIG edges for the Lynx. Plus 15 points on treys in a game won by 13. Some defensive concerns for Chicago when BOTH Cardoso and Reese are on the floor together. Maybe they both back off to avoid foul trouble at the same time in a way that’s a problem. Minnesota got its revenge. Chicago really ran out of gas in the second half, losing the last two quarters 47-32. Hung super-tough with a championship threat for 2.5 halves in three recent meetings.

Phoenix (+2) won at Golden State 78-77

  • Treys: Golden State 14/33 (42%), Golden State 12/29 (41%)

  • Two-Point Shooting: Phoenix 54%, Golden State 27%

  • Trey-Less Efficiency: Phoenix .65, Golden State .56

  • Other Keys: None, it was all two-point shooting for Phoenix

  • Pace: 76.4

Remember the crazy high Trey-less efficiency numbers from GS/Las Vegas the other day? And, high two-point shooting? That’s what happens when refs are calling everything. What you see above is what happens when refs are barely calling anything. GS won free throws 13/15 to 12/14…which isn’t exactly marching to the line all night. Pace was reasonable because it wasn’t artificially inflated by fast whistles. Valkyries are apparently AWFUL at making high-pressure two-point spots against any defensive interest at all. Phoenix ISN’T good at two-point defense! Mercury held GS to 11 of 41 on two-point shots.

Shouldn’t be possible in a game involving professionals. That’s the downside of trying to win with players nobody’s heard of. Effort and strategy can do a lot. But, late in close games, there has to be more offense than “let’s hope somebody makes a trey.” Golden State’s crunch time problems continue. As does impressive play from Phoenix with some key players out with injury.

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