VSiN/Circa Contest Showed Toughness of “Settled” Spreads

Only TWO of 25 Contestants Showed a Post-Vig Profit of 5-Plus Units

Been awhile since we checked in on the VSiN/Circa Invitational handicapping contest for pro bettors, pro handicappers, and a handful of invited guests from mainstream media or past contest success. In terms of the full composite, there weren’t any major new developments to report.

As we’ve discussed in prior articles and on X (formerly twitter) in recent years…it’s very hard for a composite of “experts” (as labeled by VSiN) to profit against the standard 10% vigorish when betting “settled” Friday afternoon contest lines. These aren’t soft openers (the bread and butter of pro bettors…who “sharpen” the line closer to the right place). These aren’t very late lines that might have overreacted to public money and are ripe for the picking. Perfect spot for a perfect handicapping challenge.

You regulars know that Matt Youmans of VSiN came up with a brilliant design. Each contestant can pick ANY side or total, from ANY college or pro football game on the board at Circa as of posting time. Seven strongest selections from a huge slate of options.

*College specialists can focus on their best 7 college picks

*Specialists in smaller mid-major conferences can focus only on those leagues

*Totals specialists can ignore team sides and go with their 7 best Over/Unders

*NFL specialists can ignore the colleges and go with their 7 best pro picks

*Analysts who believe underdogs offer the best value vs. the market can pick 7 dogs

There are no excuses. Whatever you think works…YOU CAN DO!

In that format, you might expect all “experts” to do well enough to show a profit. Or, maybe a few suffer bad luck (impossible for everyone to avoid bad luck) and the rest of the field shows a profit. What’s happened through the history of this invitational though, (it used to be 5 picks rather than 7 in prior years), is that the composite group can barely make it past 50%...while staying well beneath the 52.4% needed to beat the 10% vigorish paid on lost bets.

Settled Friday afternoon lines are that difficult to beat. Even for people who follow football and football betting professionally.

2024 Final Composite Record:

1,227 Wins

1,211 Losses

68 Pushes

That’s just 50.3%...only 16 games above .500. If you factor in the 10% vig, a total loss of 105 units.

You regulars know that I use 1K selections as a benchmark for whether or not a record establishes a proven ability to win. That was determined several years ago in discussions with many sharps. Any schlub can get lucky and have a winning season. Any proven earner can have a losing season amidst a string of success. But, once you get to 1K picks…for that handicapper, or that model, or that trend you’re hoping is successful, you can draw firm conclusions.

You’ll notice that this year’s competition had almost 2.5K selections. Just over 2.4K if you throw out pushes. The composite couldn’t break 52.4% in the first thousand. Or, in the next thousand. In fact, results are similar to what we’ve seen in earlier seasons. As a GROUP, it’s just not going to happen.

What about any individual handicappers? Unfortunately, it takes several years of this format for any individual to reach the 1K threshold. Winner Chuck Edel could well be capable of beating settled Friday lines over 1K picks. He’s been a respected analyst for YEARS. But, his 79-44-3 winning performance only involves 126 picks. Maybe VSiN will post his lifetime record in this event (and those of other regulars). For now, Chuck goes on the “maybe” list.

Alex White of the South Point finished second at 73-49-4. She’s won other handicapping contests in Las Vegas. This was her first invite to this event. Certainly possible that Alex would be over 52.4% after 1K picks given this 60% opening salvo. (If you’ve been watching the South Point broadcasts since they began, you know she does a lot of real-world handicapping research…and has a chance to be our industry’s Mina Kimes.)

What most struck me when looking at the final records as listed at VSiN’s website…was the massive toll that 10% vigorish takes even through just 80-120 picks (some contestants were eliminated early after falling off the pace). This is something YOU need to keep in mind if you’re a recreational bettor. It’s easy to look at a contest…think to yourself “I’m better than those guys”…then mentally pencil in a great record for yourself.

Realistically, you’re much less-experienced than these contestants. Look at their vig-adjusted “net units” based on final records from their “best 7.” I’ll put the median contestant in parenthesis. That will give you a sense of what “typical” was as you scroll down…

Chuck Edel +30.6 units

Alex White +19.1 units

Weston Stradtman +4.5 units

Chris Fallica +2.3 units

Scott Pritchard +2.2 units

Chris Piper +0.7 units

Chris Macero +0.1 units

Vinny Castillo -1.0 units

Doug Kezirian -1.2 units

James Salinas -1.3 units

Paul Bovi -2.9 units

Marc Lawrence -3.1 units

(Pete Wilder -5.1 units)

Kelly Stewart -6.6 units

Chris Zeniuk -9.4 units

John Accorsi-9.4 units

Randy McKay -9.7 units

Tony Gordon -10 units

Jason Jarvis -12.8 units

Steve Fezzik -13.1 units

Brett McMurphy -14.5 units

Matt Ste. Marie-14.9 units

Jeff Petch -15.9 units

Rob Brandt-16.2 units

Sean Higgs -17.8 units

How much do YOU bet per unit? Do you bet recreationally for fun? Are you a bit more serious, and it’s more like $100 per unit? Maybe you take this very seriously at bet $1K per unit. How many units of profit does it take for YOU to be a professional bettor? Aren’t you betting mostly “settled” point spreads after value has been bet out by sharps?

If you managed to finish 25% of the way down the list…that’s less than one unit of profit. For a little over FOUR MONTHS of work. If you were the median…you dropped five units. Can’t retire from your current career and make a living if betting football causes you to LOSE money. Some prominent names lost more than 10 units. With their SEVEN BEST PICKS against THE ENTIRE COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL BOARD.

It's a lot of fun to be a football fan…and to study football from a market perspective. Please don’t have any delusions of grandeur about what’s possible for even avid observers to do against SETTLED LATE-WEEK LINES.

*Mainstream networks have learned that their game day pundits will hit about 50/50 against the spread over time. “Value” is typically gone by game day. Former NFL star X…and former college star Y…and former head coach Z aren’t any better than anyone else that late in the process.

*Sports betting networks have learned that THEIR game day pundits will hit about 50/50 over time for the same reasons. Even if you call them “experts.” MAYBE a relative handful will be able to beat the vig over 1K picks.

*VSiN has essentially PROVEN through its annual invitational contest that respected names in the field IN COMPOSITE can do a little better than 50/50, but can’t hit better than 52.4% even if they get to cherry pick their BEST SEVEN choices from THE ENTIRE FOOTBALL BOARD of sides and totals.

If you’re new to sports betting, think long and hard about what you can reasonably accomplish. Keep it fun. Even if you’re smarter about football than everyone you know, you’re probably not smarter than the sum intelligence of oddsmakers and sharps that create those settled late-week lines.

That’s it for this report. A look at how sharps are betting Wednesday night’s SEC basketball will be posted early Wednesday morning. Sharps reports coming through the week for college football playoff games Notre Dame vs. Penn State and Ohio State vs. Texas…and, of course, this weekend’s NFL playoffs. See you again soon.