Worst NFL Offenses Under the Spotlight
Bottom Eight Looking to Improve
We’ve already talked this summer about NFL teams that need to improve their touchdown dynamics if they’re going to get better this season. So far, that’s mostly looking down from the blimp at the big picture. Today, I want to focus on the worst offenses.
Last season, there were eight teams that scored TDs on 18% of their offensive drives or less. Conveniently, that’s the bottom quarter of the league. Good cut-off point for isolating teams that REALLY need to improve on that side of the ball.
First, let’s just list the teams. Then, we’ll look at the coaching/QB situation for all of them…
Worst TD/Drive Offenses
NY Jets 9%
Carolina 11%
New England 12%
NY Giants 13%
Atlanta 16%
Tennessee 17%
LA Chargers 18%
Cleveland 18%
No surprises there. You remember those storylines. Either injury problems or inexperience at the position.
Heading into 2024…
*NY Jets 9%: hoping that the return of Aaron Rodgers will instantly lift the offense into the 20% range. Could definitely happen. But, he is old. And losing a year at that age may imply a decline that would limit the bounce back. No coaching changes because the franchise assumes it will matter if Rodgers is on the field.
*Carolina 11%: hired an offensive minded head coach in Dave Canales, and installed a new offensive coordinator. Quarterback is still expected to be Bryce Young, with Andy Dalton as top backup. Potential for improvement, though it’s possible Young is just too small to be a star in this league.
*New England 12%: Overhaul. Franchise has a new head coach and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Starting QB is expected to be Jacoby Brissett, with rookie Drake Maye read to compete for the job. Very volatile situation. At least expectations are low! Pretty bleak outlook. But, you never know.
*NY Giants 13%: Stunningly little overhaul. Giants actually have a new defensive coordinator…which probably won’t help the offense much. Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito playing for beleaguered Brian Daboll. Reports not too long ago suggested Daboll might take over play-calling. Very hard to be optimistic right now. You can “improve” from 13% and still be a lousy 17-18%.
*Atlanta 16%: complete overhaul, but in a promising way. Kirk Cousins will be the new QB. Raheem Morris the new head coach, with two new coordinators. At least this isn’t an overhaul with question marks. Known quantities here could make a run at 20-25% on offense…which would be enough to matter. But, slight improvement won’t be enough.
*Tennessee 17%: New head coach Brian Callahan was in charge of the offense at Cincinnati. Promising sign there for improvement. But, the QB depth chart is still led by Will Levis and Malik Willis. It’s certainly possible that Levis will take a big stride forward this season, or that Willis will be a surprise contributor. Not the same as doing an overhaul with Kirk Cousins at QB, or hoping Aaron Rodgers finds his past form. A longshot to matter, but not a distant longshot.
*LA Chargers 18%: We know Justin Herbert can play. Can he stay healthy? Is new coach Jim Harbaugh still going to look over his head in the NFL (which happened in his latter days at SF…game seemed to be evolving while he didn’t). Herbert healthy can get the team into the low 20’s right there…possibly better. Definitely a situation to monitor. You regulars know I’m a bit skeptical of Harbaugh having immediate success. Plenty of room for me to be wrong.
*Cleveland 18%: It’s assumed a healthy Deshaun Watson would lead Cleveland into the 20% range. Franchise is stable on the coaching front…meaning they EXPECT Watson to be the answer.
I guess we can summarize it this way…
*Decent outlook, but In danger of over-reliance on QB health: Atlanta, NY Jets, LA Chargers, Cleveland.
*Questionable outlook, with fingers crossed regarding young QB development: Carolina, Tennessee.
*Fingers Crossed on a lot of Things: New England, NYG.
Once the regular season begins, we’ll make it a point of emphasis to monitor TD ratios for those eight offenses…as well as the important benchmarks of third down conversions (ability to sustain drives), red zone percentage (ability to finish drives), turnovers (ability to keep the ball), and possibly sack rates for the youngest starters and the old guy in New York.
Preseason could get interesting for the QBs (and coaches) that aren’t proven veterans. Offenses for New England, NYG, Carolina, and Tennessee could have a sense of urgency deeper into August action than their opponents. Let’s keep that on the radar too. I will be writing up “How the Sharps are Betting” articles for the preseason (unless it turns out the sharps just aren’t betting much). Smart money might show an interest in those teams, and any others hinting at motivation to get numbers on the board.
That’s it for the latest in what will be a summer series of NFL-themed articles. I’ll continue mixing football topics in with other stuff through July. Hall of Fame game will be Thursday night August 1 when Chicago plays Houston in Canton, OH. Wouldn’t be surprised if Chicago is priced with a sense of urgency after changing both coordinators in the offseason. Will be here before you know it!