I Think I Figured Out Why NFL Home Field Advantage Disappeared!

Well, at Least the Root of the Issue

I think it’s generally understood by most people that home field advantage isn’t what it used to be in the NFL. For many years, it was accepted that the value was about 3 points. It took forever to get people to STOP saying that as it gradually shrunk. As we’re reported this season, it’s essentially down to almost nothing right now.

’24 Median Result: 0 margin at end of regulation (OT game)

’24 Average Result: host by 1.16 points

That mildly relevant discrepancy is largely driven by the phenomenon of home teams running up the score in blowouts more than road teams do. It’s not really about “the field” or “the city,” but about choices coaches make with a big lead.

Anyway. About 30 years ago I had one of my Madame Curie moments where I discovered something nobody else had ever talked about. First one had been about 40 years ago when I noticed that you could turn a projected baseball score into a money line equivalent using the Bill James Pythagorean method. (Handicappers and bettors use to say that betting baseball was tricky because you bet based on point spreads in football and basketball, but money lines in baseball. I figured out how to turn a run spread into a money line. Extremely unlikely I was the only person by then---mid 80’s---to have figured that out. But, I was proud nonetheless.)

Second one (early 90’s) involved the following…

*I did a study that showed (at the time) turnovers were worth about 4 points. They had 4 points worth of impact on the scoreboard. Either provided cheap points…took points that should have been scored off the board (say, throwing an INT in the end zone or fumbling the ball away at the opponent’s 10-yard line). Big picture value was 4 points of impact per turnover.

*I heard Dick Vermeil tell Brent Musburger in one of their game telecasts that HE had done a study back when he was a head coach showing that fumbles were worth 5 points, interceptions 3 points. That’s about what I had! I figured it was easier just to call it 4 and stick with that. (This was early/mid 90’s, because I remember living in our house in South Austin at the time…and Musburger/Vermeil were a team from the mid 80’s to early/mid 90’s).

*I can’t remember why, but I did a study comparing “road team TOs” to “home team TO’s, and determined that road teams committed 0.75 more TOs per game (at the time of the study).

Wait a second…that’s three/fourths of a turnover…and turnovers are worth FOUR points…while home field advantage is worth THREE points. That works out PERFECTLY!

Home field advantage was at least “largely” a result of visitors committing three/fourths of a TO more per game at that time. Whether it was from crowd noise…or travel fatigue affecting performance…or passers not seeing the field clearly in road environments…whatever. Numbers lined up perfectly.

Which brings us to an hour ago…if home field advantage has virtually disappeared in the NFL…has the TO differential between visitors and hosts also disappeared?

2024 to Date:

Visitors: 223 TOs

Hosts: 229 TOs

Yes! Road teams aren’t committing more TOs like they used to. Now, I did that by hand, it might be off a smidge. (I remembered to throw out games played on foreign soil). It’s probably a bit of a fluke that home teams have actually suffered a few more TOs through 13 weeks. It’s essentially equal at a time when home field advantage has disappeared.

I know the world is a lot more complicated than this. Officials may have discrepancies in how they call penalties. Gameplans and preparation may differ. I’m not going to say “it’s only this and nothing else!” I do think that the change in TO differential is doing most of the heavy lifting. And, that’s probably a direct result of at least some of the following developments in the sport’s evolution.

*Newer stadiums are more like cathedrals where crowd noise rises up rather than getting directed at players.

*Offenses commonly run on silent counts, that eliminate the distraction of crowd noise

*Air travel is more convenient and comfortable than ever

*Teams make sure their players have comfortable accommodations when traveling.

*Offenses are more conservative now (extended handoffs) than 30 years ago. That wild Jameis Winston performance this past Monday night felt like a throw back because the game USED to be played that way. Cleveland lost the TO category 3-2 and had two INTs returned for TDs. Teams are really focused on avoiding that kind of thing these days. (Note that there have been 190 non-neutral field games played so far….meaning visitors are committing 1.17 TOs per game, hosts 1.21…low-risk football generally speaking.)

I’m sure there are more reasons we could all think of. And, some counter-arguments too. Again, I’m not going to make the case that IT’S ALL TURNOVERS. But, I don’t think it’s just a coincidence.

*Home Field used to have impossible-to-miss value when visitors made more TOs than hosts.

*Home Field has shrunk to a very low value because visitors stopped making more TOs than hosts.

Wanted to write that up and pass it along before a new week of football got started.

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