Might be a thing you have to take case-by-case. Miami wasn't well-suited to play in the cold of KC last season. But, Chiefs won on the road at Buffalo and Baltimore. Could be argued that SF should have lost at home to both Green Bay and Detroit. A relatively inexperienced road QB (#7 seed or whatever) is more likely to be shaken by crowd/pressure than established veteran.
Could it also be that officiating is improving? There is a bias in English soccer that the home field advantage is due to more penalty shots against the away team being called because officials are influenced by the home crowd. Given replay, the scoring of officials by the league, etc, I could see the league systematically lowering home field refereeing advantages.
I've seen that case presented (regarding NFL). Could definitely be a factor. But, the numbers line up with turnovers so well that it feels like TO differential is probably doing much of the heavy lifting. Possibly a case to be made that having a replay booth review every TO has helped erase mistakes officials were making that had favored the home team. Many observers used to think that officials got such a thrill from the crowd cheering a signal that their team had recovered a fumble that it might have unduly influenced some refs. That's where officiating and TO differential could link up in a way that fits this discussion.
Things like this make me wonder whether a home advantage ever existed at all. I always believed that homefield advantage was more of a 'field' advantage than a 'home' advantage. Stadiums these days are becoming more and more homogenous. There are fewer different kinds of turf now, crowd noise no longer varies as much between venues, etc.. In short, the field part of homefield disadvantage is disappearing.
As the field advantage is disappearing, it's exposing the fact that the 'home' part of this was possibly always a myth. It takes me back to a simple regression I ran a while back that showed that once type of surface, indoor/outdoor, divisional game or not, and of course team quality were controlled for, the point estimate for simply being the home team was actually negative over the last 20 years.
This regression was overfit like crazy, because I was only trying to explain the past, but it left a lasting impression that as long as a team maintains the same type of turf, same indoor/outdoor status, and same divisional/not divisional game status in either a home or away game, that this home vs away distinction did not mean a thing over the last 20 years of NFL football. This is what formulates my opinion that 'homefield advantage' is much more field than home.
Thanks for that context, Robbie. Very helpful. Amazing that there has always been such an emphasis on "earning home field advantage" in the playoffs through our lifetimes...but the sport has evolved to where that's not much of a reward, if any.
I really like this theory. Also, I wonder if this holds as strongly in the postseason, when you’re more likely to get extreme weather elements as well as more rapid/loud crowds as opposed to the regular season which may be slightly more controlled environments and less pressure?
Might be a thing you have to take case-by-case. Miami wasn't well-suited to play in the cold of KC last season. But, Chiefs won on the road at Buffalo and Baltimore. Could be argued that SF should have lost at home to both Green Bay and Detroit. A relatively inexperienced road QB (#7 seed or whatever) is more likely to be shaken by crowd/pressure than established veteran.
Could it also be that officiating is improving? There is a bias in English soccer that the home field advantage is due to more penalty shots against the away team being called because officials are influenced by the home crowd. Given replay, the scoring of officials by the league, etc, I could see the league systematically lowering home field refereeing advantages.
I've seen that case presented (regarding NFL). Could definitely be a factor. But, the numbers line up with turnovers so well that it feels like TO differential is probably doing much of the heavy lifting. Possibly a case to be made that having a replay booth review every TO has helped erase mistakes officials were making that had favored the home team. Many observers used to think that officials got such a thrill from the crowd cheering a signal that their team had recovered a fumble that it might have unduly influenced some refs. That's where officiating and TO differential could link up in a way that fits this discussion.
Things like this make me wonder whether a home advantage ever existed at all. I always believed that homefield advantage was more of a 'field' advantage than a 'home' advantage. Stadiums these days are becoming more and more homogenous. There are fewer different kinds of turf now, crowd noise no longer varies as much between venues, etc.. In short, the field part of homefield disadvantage is disappearing.
As the field advantage is disappearing, it's exposing the fact that the 'home' part of this was possibly always a myth. It takes me back to a simple regression I ran a while back that showed that once type of surface, indoor/outdoor, divisional game or not, and of course team quality were controlled for, the point estimate for simply being the home team was actually negative over the last 20 years.
This regression was overfit like crazy, because I was only trying to explain the past, but it left a lasting impression that as long as a team maintains the same type of turf, same indoor/outdoor status, and same divisional/not divisional game status in either a home or away game, that this home vs away distinction did not mean a thing over the last 20 years of NFL football. This is what formulates my opinion that 'homefield advantage' is much more field than home.
Thanks for that context, Robbie. Very helpful. Amazing that there has always been such an emphasis on "earning home field advantage" in the playoffs through our lifetimes...but the sport has evolved to where that's not much of a reward, if any.
I really like this theory. Also, I wonder if this holds as strongly in the postseason, when you’re more likely to get extreme weather elements as well as more rapid/loud crowds as opposed to the regular season which may be slightly more controlled environments and less pressure?
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