Mailbag: What is the Purpose of Sloppiness Score in NFL Betting?
Turns Out There’s An Amazingly Direct Correlation!
Most of you read the article posted the other day about sloppiness in the NFL (5 times the number of turnovers, plus the number of incomplete passes). If you DIDN’T, here’s a link so you can get caught up.
Because that was a free article available to everyone, I also posted it in the “Notes” section at Substack. A reader names James posted this question…
“How does this relate to ATS wins and losses? I know KC was terrible ATS in 2024 yet you show them with a good sloppiness score. So in that respect, it doesn’t relate to ATS wins. I am not sure how the other teams fared in 2024. What was the purpose of the sloppiness score in regards to betting?”
I thought a lot about “purpose” and decided to make this a Mailbag response. Then, I dug a little deeper into ATS records and was happy I did!
First…the purpose of almost any “stat” thing discussed in this writing project is to learn more about team skill sets. To me, “handicapping” a sports event should be based on understanding team skills (strengths and weaknesses), and then seeing how they match up in a given contest.
Honestly, I don’t do a good job of re-emphasizing that periodically because the subscriber list is very stable during the spring and summer months. Almost ALL of you are regulars and know we’re trying to learn about skill sets. But, when I post something for free…there will be new readers. I need to explain the purpose of what I’m doing instead of just saying “man, Cleveland was a disaster in this cute little elementary school level stat I invented decades ago.”
Second, I should also do a better job of talking about options besides point spread betting in games. While its true that Kansas City played clean football, but didn’t have a great ATS record in 2024…the Chiefs DID have a great straight up record (15-2)…and you can bet on teams to win straight up! You can also bet on Regular Season Win Totals…or futures prices to win a division, conference, or Super Bowl. Knowing which teams play clean, and which play sloppy can definitely help you make better decisions with those types of betting propositions.
Survivor contests…money line parlays…all sorts of options last season where it may have been helpful to take KC even if the Chiefs weren’t covering game spreads.
Thirdly…I mentioned the other day that I often have to talk readers DOWN from getting too excited about sloppiness stats. Because turnovers play such a strong role in determining who wins and covers…AFTER THE FACT there’s usually a obvious correlation. But, you couldn’t have been sure going into any individual game which team was going to implode. (Like, how the Lions imploded against the Commanders in the playoffs, or the Chargers imploded against the Texans).
Turns out, there IS a very strong correlation between offensive sloppiness stats and ATS performance. Kansas City was an obvious outlier. One of the few! After reading ATS records, I going to have to talk you down again!
I usually use the Covers website to get ATS records. But, there were some clear mistakes involving KC and Detroit at first glance…so I web-searched another site. It had records that included playoff games. I put ATS records in parenthesis for each of the groupings we looked at the other day.
Least Sloppy Offenses in 2024
Baltimore 214 (11-7-1 ATS)
LA Chargers 219 (12-5-1 ATS)
Philadelphia 220 (14-7 ATS)
Detroit 227 (12-6 ATS)
Buffalo 231 (12-8 ATS)
Kansas City 236 (8-11-1 ATS)
Washington 240 (12-7-1 ATS)
Our list of seven least sloppy offenses combined to go 81-51-4 against the spread last season, for a sparkling 61% success rate. Kansas City was the only “clean” team with a losing ATS record…largely caused by playing conservative football against “blowout” lines. Other clean teams posted good ATS records. Many ran into each other in the playoffs, so “regular season” performance was even better.
We can’t forget that there is an element of luck in the TO category…and it’s NOT surprising that teams enjoying good luck would also cover point spreads. Let’s keep our feet on the ground.
Reasonably Clean, Promising for 2025
Pittsburgh 263 (11-7 ATS)
LA Rams 266 (10-8 ATS)
Green Bay 266 (9-8 ATS)
Arizona 269 (11-6 ATS)
Tampa Bay 278 (10-8 ATS)
Miami 283 (7-10 ATS)
Denver 286 (12-6 ATS)
Minnesota 289 (11-5-1 ATS)
Chicago 293 (8-7-2 ATS)
That adds up to 89-65, which is 58%. We’ve talked about 16 teams so far. Exactly half of the league. Teams in the upper half at avoiding sloppiness cashed tickets at a very high rate. Miami was the only outlier from this second list. That’s 14 of 16 “clean” teams who posted winning ATS records.
Now let’s turn things upside down. Remember the five WORST teams at this skill set?
NFL’s Sloppiest Teams
Cleveland 436 (4-13 ATS)
Dallas 379 (7-10 ATS)
Las Vegas 370 (7-10 ATS)
Indianapolis 369 (9-8 ATS)
Tennessee 364 (2-15 ATS)
That’s 29-56, a woeful 34% against the spread. Indianapolis was able to post a slightly profitable mark. Maybe that’s why I had forgotten about all the Colts’ sloppiness! Only three teams swimming against the tide so far. Good reminder that you generally want to AVOID betting on sloppiness-prone teams whether you’re talking about games, futures, contests, or anything.
Too Sloppy, But Not Disasters
NY Giants 340 (5-12 ATS)
Jacksonville 323 (10-7 ATS)
San Francisco 319 (5-12 ATS)
NY Jets 317 (6-11 ATS)
Carolina 316 (8-9 ATS)
Atlanta 315 (7-10 ATS)
This sluggish group was a poor 41-61 against the market, 40% ATS. Only Jacksonville was an outlier. Four teams out of 27 so far. One of the big reasons San Francisco fell off the map is that the offense became much sloppier and less efficient.
Looks like I left out five “tweeners” in the prior article. I was so focused on the good news and bad news. Let me rectify that now, with ATS records…
Tweeners a Bit Below Midpoint
Seattle 300 (6-10-1 ATS)
New England 302 (7-9-1 ATS)
Cincinnati 302 (10-7 ATS)
New Orleans 306 (7-10 ATS)
Houston 308 (9-9-1 ATS)
Record for this group was 39-45-3. Very tough to beat point spreads if you’re not in the top half of the league at avoiding sloppiness.
So, getting back to the original question…
How does this relate to ATS wins and losses? I know KC was terrible ATS in 2024 yet you show them with a good sloppiness score. So in that respect, it doesn’t relate to ATS wins. I am not sure how the other teams fared in 2024. What was the purpose of the sloppiness score in regards to betting?
It relates VERY STRONGLY to ATS wins and losses…probably in a way that overstates its predictive value looking forward. You can’t always know in advance who’s going to implode (the way SF did) or which young QBs will avoid mistakes (the way Washington did). Sloppiness DOES generally relate to ATS wins across the NFL, but didn’t for KC and a few other teams.
And, the purpose of sloppiness score in regards to betting is to learn more about team skill sets so you can make logical choices when deciding on your ATS, money line, futures, or contest selections.
With the WNBA All-Star break imminent, and the MLB break ongoing, I’ll be writing up the defensive side of this (“sloppiness forced”) within a couple of days. I’m skeptical that ATS alignment will be this dramatic…just because the nature of QB play impacts this stat so greatly…and QB’s play offense. But, I’ll put in ATS records on the initial run-through just in case.
Thanks for reading. If you’re a subscriber, thanks for subscribing. See you again soon.