Reviewing the “Most Aggressive” and “Softest” Defenses from 2024 NFL
Any Guesses About the Best and Worst?
As promised, back with a look at how well defenses “forced” sloppiness on opponents last season in the NFL…or used aggression to create mistakes by opposing quarterbacks and gameplans. We’ve already looked at this from the offensive perspective…
Quick reminder that sloppiness is 5 times the number of turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes. An offense that turns the ball over 3 times and throws 15 incomplete passes (say, 20-35-225 passing line) would have a sloppiness score of 30. That’s 3 times 5…for 15, then you tack another 15 onto that. LOWER is better on offense because teams are trying to avoid sloppiness.
Today we turn it around and look at defenses. Here, HIGHER is better because defenses want to impose sloppiness on opponents. In the example just above, the defense “forced” a sloppiness score of 30 in its opponent. Because putting ATS records in parenthesis (against the spread) worked so well in the Mailbag, I’ll just do that here from the get-go. I used the same website as last time…so playoff games ARE included. That’s why some teams add up to more than 17 games.
Let’s jump right in…
Best Defenses at Forcing Sloppiness in 2025 (Top Quarter)
Minnesota 387 (11-5-1 ATS)
Houston 373 (9-9-1 ATS)
Pittsburgh 365 (11-7 ATS)
Detroit 357 (12-6 ATS)
Buffalo 342 (12-8 ATS)
Green Bay 339 (9-9 ATS)
Denver 338 (12-6 ATS)
Philadelphia 335 (14-7 ATS)
That’s 90-57 ATS, for 61% against the spread. You may remember from the Mailbag piece that the least sloppy offenses also went 61% ATS. So, again, a very strong correlation between this stat and point spread performance. There’s not a perfect correlation. Both Houston and Green Bay had .500 records, which means their backers lost a little bit of money due to vigorish.
Some very good teams in that mix, including eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia. Many of you are already thinking that this can be a loaded stat. Some teams are so good that opponents are forced to play from behind most of the game. And, that by itself can create the illusion of a high-pressure defense because trailing teams naturally throw more incomplete passes in a higher-risk approach while chasing. VERY TRUE.
So, let’s keep that in mind for Buffalo and Detroit. Minnesota too because the Vikings had some blowouts. But, on the eye test…nobody would argue about whether or not Minnesota played aggressive defense. And, teams like Houston and Pittsburgh certainly weren’t running away and hiding from opponents because of their own fantastic offenses. If you want to mentally think of the Texans and Steelers as the BEST defenses at forcing sloppiness…no argument from me. And, we can at least say that teams like Buffalo and Detroit did a good of exploiting chasers.
Reasonably Aggressive Defenses
Cincinnati 326 (10-7 ATS)
Baltimore 314 (11-7-1 ATS)
New Orleans 310 (7-10 ATS)
LA Chargers 303 (12-5-1 ATS)
Tampa Bay 302 (10-8 ATS)
This group wasn’t the top quarter, but was in the top half. Should give them credit for that. This hunk went 50-37 ATS for 57%. Our second group the other day, the “reasonably clean” offenses also hit 57%. You’re going to see that ATS performance lines up VERY well with risk/reward dynamics AFTER THE FACT. Less easy to pick games in advance by knowing these skill sets. But, what happens with turnovers dramatically impacts the scoreboard.
Parity Pack (just a bit better or worse than midpoint)
Chicago 298 (8-7-2 ATS)
Kansas City 294 (8-11-1 ATS)
Indianapolis 292 (9-8 ATS)
LA Rams 288 (10-8 ATS)
Seattle 288 (6-10-1 ATS)
Miami 287 (7-10 ATS)
An ATS record of 48-54 for this middle hunk. That’s 47%. Swing three games the other direction, and it’s 50/50. Not going to draw any conclusions from being “about average” in this skill set. Kansas City may not be much of a championship threat in 2025/26 if it doesn’t score opposing offenses more than this.
Too Passive (but better than bottom quarter)
NY Jets 279 (6-11 ATS)
Washington 274 (12-7-1 ATS)
Dallas 273 (7-10 ATS)
Atlanta 264 (7-10 ATS)
San Francisco 263 (5-12 ATS)
Record here drops to 37-50 for 43% ATS, even though they weren’t disasters. NFL teams have trouble covering spreads if their own defenses aren’t forcing mistakes! Washington overcame a soft defense with great offensive play. San Francisco could NOT overcome a soft defense because its own offense sputtered too often. Took forever for the market to notice, and for the media to stop whining about injuries and notice specifically what was happening in risk/reward stuff.
Oh, we can be sure Aaron Rodgers will be happier playing for Pittsburgh. Steelers will likely set him up with good field position much more often than NYJ did.
Softest NFL Defenses in 2025 (Bottom Quarter)
Las Vegas 256 (7-10 ATS)
Cleveland 255 (4-13 ATS)
Carolina 255 (8-9 ATS)
Arizona 254 (11-6 ATS)
Tennessee 249 (2-15 ATS)
New England 247 (7-9-1 ATS)
Jacksonville 236 (10-7 ATS)
NY Giants 229 (5-12 ATS)
This awful group went 54-81 for 40% ATS. Both Arizona and Jacksonville managed to earn a profit. There’s a very strong general correlation to sloppiness and ATS performance…but not 100% across the league. Really ugly stuff from Tennessee on both sides of the ball…and the Giants too for that matter. Las Vegas and Cleveland both have a long way to go before becoming relevant.
That’s it for this report. We’ll dig deeper into the dynamics of sloppiness through the summer (and do more to celebrate the defenses of Houston and Pittsburgh), and remind everyone of TD/Drive ratios on both sides of the ball as well. We learned A LOT last season about how important these particular elements are to football success. Mainstream media and league marketing talks “around” these issues (particularly TD/Drive ratios) without ever really emphasizing that’s the JOB of offenses to safely score touchdowns…and it’s the JOB of defenses to get stops and take the ball away.
Everybody’s so focused on fantasy stats and arguing about which receiver is the most dynamic that they lose sight of the big picture. Very tough to understand how/why sharps are betting…or to make picks yourself without a great grasp of the big picture. Important information!
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Both the MLB and WNBA All-Star Breaks are still ongoing. Back with you Thursday night with…probably…a Mailbag piece. See you again soon.